As of March 19, 2025, the Chinese yuan has depreciated below 11.5 rubles for the first time since June 2024, drawing attention from financial analysts and investors alike. The fall in value has caught many off guard, especially given the yuan had remained above the 12-ruble mark earlier in the month. Several factors have contributed to this significant shift in the currency landscape.
Key among the reasons for the strengthening of the ruble, according to financial analyst Vladislav Antonov from BitRiver, are positive geopolitical developments and an influx of foreign capital stimulated by higher yields on Russian bonds. "The positive news surrounding talks between Russian and U.S. leaders has played a crucial role in changing market sentiment," Antonov stated. Additionally, Antonov noted that exporters reported a 25% increase in net currency sales for February compared to January, coupled with a decline in imports, further bolstering the ruble's position.
On the same day, analysis from Ivan Efanov, an expert from "Tsifra Broker," indicated that the yuan is on a downward trend with no immediate signs of reversing course. He speculated that the currency could decrease to around 10.88 rubles before the week concludes. His colleague Alexander Shneiderman from Alpha Forex corroborated this prediction, suggesting that due to rising demand for ruble assets, the yuan might even dip to 11 rubles. Shneiderman explained, "The ruble is benefiting from improving geopolitical conditions and increased attractiveness of ruble-denominated financial instruments."
Currently, trading results show the yuan sitting at approximately 11.41 rubles during early trades on March 19, with rates on the Moscow Exchange reflecting slightly higher at 11.45 rubles per yuan. The shift has made a significant impact on the market, as currency traders and businesses now navigate these changes with caution.
Amidst the fluctuating values, Antonov highlighted potential future support levels for the yuan at around 10.85 rubles. He emphasized that the capacity for accurate technical analysis has been limited due to recent sanctions impacting trading platforms. This complexity adds layers to the forecasting process, leaving many analysts reflecting uncertainly on the yuan's longevity against the ruble.
Meanwhile, on the Belarusian Forex market on the same day, the dollar opened at 3.0794 rubles, presenting a modest increase from prior sessions, while the euro follows suit at 3.3451 rubles. In terms of overall market trends, it's apparent that the ruble is steadily gaining ground against both the dollar and the euro, illustrating an adaptive market response to changing financial landscapes.
The changing dynamics have led to a consensus among analysts that the ruble's positive trajectory may continue, with expectations for further concentration around the 11-11.5 ruble range against the yuan. Promsvyazbank expert Denis Popov articulated, "Given the end of March's typical increase in currency sales by exporters, the risks of the ruble strengthening further are very high," noting the technical analytics indicate a potential movement to 10.4-10.8 rubles per yuan.
Yet, analysts also maintain a note of caution. The long-term prospects of the yuan against the ruble remain shrouded in uncertainty, particularly given the volatility in international relations and ongoing sanctions against Russia, which complicate market predictability. Efanov stated, "Given the current market conditions, we can expect fluctuations, but ultimately, the long-term stability remains unpredictable. The forex market is influenced by many external factors that are constantly in flux."
In summary, as of March 19, 2025, the ruble demonstrates a resilient response amidst external pressures, gaining strength against the yuan resulting from significant geopolitical events and shifts in market sentiment. However, the future trajectory of the yuan in relation to the ruble and other currencies will depend on both domestic and international developments, with investors and analysts alike keeping a close watch for further signs of currency volatility.
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