Marco Rubio's first official trip as Secretary of State takes him to Panama, where discussions about the Panama Canal and U.S. national interests are set to be front and center. The trip, which runs from January 31 to February 6, 2025, marks the first time in over 100 years a U.S. Secretary of State has made Latin America the focus of their initial international engagement.
During the upcoming visit, Rubio will meet with Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino. Their talks are expected to touch on the contentious issue surrounding U.S. interests and control of the Panama Canal, built by the United States over 100 years ago but since turned over to Panama. President Donald Trump has repeatedly asserted claims indicating China controls the canal, raising alarms about potential security risks. Mulino has firmly rejected this narrative, stating, "I cannot negotiate and much less open a process of negotiation on the canal. That is sealed. The canal belongs to Panama." This sentiment reflects Panama's stance against any perceived U.S. overreach concerning its sovereign territory.
The topic of control emerges against the backdrop of rising Chinese influence throughout Latin America. Rubio, echoing Trump, has cautioned about the risks, noting during his SiriusXM interview, "China could potentially block access to the canal in the event of a conflict. That is a direct threat." There’s widespread concern among U.S. officials about Chinese companies operating at strategic locations around the canal, including ports, which might threaten U.S. maritime access.
U.S. Special Envoy for Latin America, Mauricio Claver-Carone, emphasized the importance of this issue, indicating the need for the Panamanian government to address China's increasing presence. He stated, "The increasingly creeping presence of Chinese companies...which is very concerning, not only frankly to the national security of the United States, but frankly to the national security of Panama and to the entire Western Hemisphere." This worrying trend has led to calls for renewed U.S. vigilance and strategic partnership with Panama.
Beyond discussing the canal, Rubio's trip will also focus on broader regional challenges, such as migration. The Trump administration’s desire to promote cooperation among Central American nations includes addressing illegal migration flows to the United States. Multilateral discussions are anticipated during Rubio’s visits to El Salvador, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic as well.
These conversations come at a time when Trump’s administration is bolstering its influence within the region, facing off against what many see as China's encroachment. Trump’s administration has characterized the increasing economic cooperation between China and Latin America with unease, as it could tilt regional dynamics increasingly toward Chinese interests. The fear is palpable, especially with reports indicating significant Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) throughout the region, estimated at around $160 billion over the past 15 years.
Despite these tensions, experts believe both the U.S. and Panamanian governments seek to avoid any fallout from the fraught discussions over the canal during Rubio's visit. R. Evan Ellis, professor at the U.S. Army War College, remarked, "At the end of the day, President Trump is probably looking for a deal where he can declare victory. The Panamanians are looking for what they can give up without violating their own control of the canal." This underlying motivation could pave the way for diplomatic engagement, as both sides explore ways to cooperate on their respective priorities.
Panama itself has begun auditing the operations of various companies around the canal, including the Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holdings, which has recently attracted scrutiny due to its operations within the canal’s vicinity. Authorities hope this audit can provide them with insights necessary for discussions on the influence of Chinese companies operating within its borders.
On this trip, Rubio’s engagements aren't solely limited to infrastructure or national security concerns. Alongside responding to questions of governance and economic responsibility, he may also promote discussions around regional stability, urging collaboration to confront the realities of drug trafficking and illegal migration—a perennial issue impacting the region's socio-economic stability.
With the backdrop of these global tensions and the promise of collaboration, Rubio's trip stands as a symbol of the renewed engagement the United States seeks to have with Latin America. It reveals the complex interplay of power, influence, and national interests at stake, as both nations tread carefully to find common ground on matters pivotal to their futures.