The Russian ruble has made significant gains against the US dollar, trading below 95 rubles for the first time since October 2024, amid various market developments and geopolitical shifts.
On February 12, 2025, the dollar was trading at less than 94 rubles, showing declines across various trading platforms. Data from TASS reported the dollar had dropped to 93.98 rubles, down by 2.58%, with the rate sinking even lower to 93.68 rubles shortly thereafter.
This decline marks the first time the dollar has fallen below 94 rubles since October 2024, prompting experts to analyze the potential causes and future outlook. Notably, the ruble's recent performance can be attributed to several interwoven factors. Analyst Alexander Shepelev from BCS Mir Investitsiy suggested the strengthening ruble is supported by seasonal improvements to the balance of payments, boosted by high energy prices and falling import demand.
The downward trend of the dollar isn't limited to just one trading session. Historical data shows fluctuations leading up to this moment, including heights where the dollar reached as much as 114.5 rubles earlier. The volatility is creating significant concern among traders and businesses alike. Shepelev predicted fluctuations for the yuan, estimating it could reach levels between 12.8 and 13.3 rubles, with the dollar expected to settle between 95 and 99 rubles.
According to the Central Bank's official data, as of February 12, the dollar was set at 95.80 rubles against the euro's 99.20 rubles, the latter also dipping below 100 rubles for the first time since September 2024. This aligns with patterns observed on Forex markets, where moments of decline showed the dollar dropping to as low as 93.7 rubles.
Market analysts also pointed to the need for businesses and consumers to adapt to this near-term strengthening of the ruble, with expectations of sustained low demand for foreign currencies. The prevailing conditions, marked by seasonal dips and decreased imports, hint at structural changes within the economy, including how the Central Bank computes currency values.
Богдан Zvarich, chief analyst at Banks.ru, mentioned the shift from traditional exchanges to alternative measures, stating the Central Bank is now basing currency rates on domestic reports and data from digital trading platforms. This development is particularly notable amid the elimination of trading with countries deemed 'unfriendly,' which has altered market dynamics significantly.
Despite encouraging signs for the ruble, experts caution against overconfidence. Alexey Golovin from Vektor Capital indicated fears remain concerning potential geopolitical repercussions. "A cease-fire concerning the situation in Ukraine could lead to even greater ruble strength," noted Golovin, underlining mixed sentiments within the financial community.
Many believe the dollar's declining trend reflects broader economic pressures on Russia, particularly as high demand for energy continues, coupled with geopolitical uncertainty. The underlying health of the Russian economy will play a pivotal role in determining whether the ruble can sustain its current strength or whether the dollar will rebound rapidly.
Overall, as various analysts continue to provide insights during these volatile periods, the central narrative remains clear: many are cautiously optimistic about the ruble's resilience. While the recent performances show promise, external shocks remain likely, which could dent confidence and overshadow current gains.
Looking forward, analysts predict the exchange rates could stabilize within the 95.5 to 100 ruble range if the underlying economic and geopolitical conditions remain favorable. Any shifts, such as changes in energy market prices or renewed political tensions, might also spawn fresh challenges for the ruble's relative standing against the dollar and euro.
This considerable fluctuation highlights the importance of closely monitoring market trends and potential policy adjustments as Russia navigates its economic challenges and foreign policy strategies.