North Carolina is gearing up for a pivotal moment in its political landscape as the 2026 midterm elections approach, with a marquee U.S. Senate race capturing national attention. The open seat, vacated by retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis, has set the stage for a fierce contest that could influence the balance of power in the U.S. Senate and shape the political future leading into the 2028 presidential election.
Former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat widely regarded as the party's strongest contender, made a significant public appearance at the state's Democratic Party Unity Dinner on July 26, 2025. This event marked his first public outing since news of his anticipated Senate run surfaced. Cooper’s presence energized the party faithful, signaling a serious bid for the seat that Democrats have not held since 2008.
During the dinner, Cooper playfully engaged the crowd, saying, “Everybody who is planning to run for office next year please stand up. Hey, I’m not sitting down, am I?” His remarks underscored his readiness to enter the race formally, with candidate filing officially opening on December 1, 2025, and closing December 19, 2025.
The importance of North Carolina’s Senate race cannot be overstated. Democrats need to flip at least four Senate seats to regain control of the chamber in 2026, and North Carolina’s contest is the only one rated as a “toss up” by the Cook Political Report. This rarity elevates the race to a national spotlight, especially since other battleground states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona do not have Senate seats up for election that year.
Cooper’s candidacy is bolstered by strong support from key Democratic figures, including Governor Josh Stein and Attorney General Jeff Jackson, who have encouraged him to run. Stein, who addressed the Unity Dinner via video from the National Governors Association conference, praised the Democratic Party’s recent successes and expressed confidence in the party’s ability to maintain momentum. He also highlighted the challenges posed by Republicans in the state legislature, who have pushed bills that Stein vetoed, including a sweeping anti-transgender bill. Representative Dante Pittman, a Democrat from Wilson and the only House Democrat who voted for that bill, pledged support for Stein’s veto efforts, saying, “When it comes to the veto overrides, we’ve got your back.”
On the Republican side, the primary field currently includes Don Brown, a Stanly County attorney and military novelist, and Andy Nilsson, a retired businessman from Winston-Salem. An independent candidate, Shaunesi Deberry, has also filed paperwork but currently resides in Maryland, raising questions about eligibility unless she relocates.
However, the real GOP spotlight is on Michael Whatley, a western North Carolina native who led the state Republican Party for five years before taking over the national Republican Party ahead of the 2024 elections. Whatley has not officially announced his candidacy but has received strong backing from former President Donald Trump, who has promoted him as a candidate aligned with the “Make America Great Again” movement and tough immigration enforcement policies.
Senator Tillis’s decision not to seek reelection came after Trump threatened to support a primary challenger due to Tillis’s opposition to the controversial “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which includes significant Medicaid cuts. Tillis argued that these cuts could result in nearly 700,000 North Carolinians losing health insurance and could lead to rural hospital closures. His opposition to the bill and perceived establishment stance led to his censure by the state GOP in 2023.
The Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the race from “lean Republican” to a “toss up” following Tillis’s withdrawal, reflecting the competitive nature of the contest. Political analyst David McLennan of Meredith College in Raleigh notes that Cooper holds a slight advantage due to his extensive experience, connections, and fundraising capabilities, while Whatley’s strength lies in his insider status and relationships with party powerbrokers, despite his lack of candidate experience.
Republicans are expected to focus their campaign messaging on cultural issues, particularly attacking Cooper’s past support for transgender rights in 2016 and the Black Lives Matter movement in 2020. Cooper’s handling of major hurricanes Matthew and Florence may also become campaign fodder, especially with the recent memory of 2024’s Hurricane Helene. Meanwhile, Trump’s emphasis on strict immigration enforcement and conservative tax, law enforcement, and gun rights policies aligns with Whatley’s platform.
Democrats plan to emphasize healthcare, particularly Medicaid expansion, which was approved in North Carolina in 2023 after years of advocacy by Cooper. The expansion has benefited rural and Republican-leaning counties the most, and its potential elimination under Trump’s budget could cost the state economy at least $40 billion annually. Cooper’s campaign may also highlight the negative impacts of Trump’s tariffs and trade policies on inflation and criticize national Republicans’ efforts to cut funding for public education.
Cooper’s tenure as governor saw significant corporate growth, with the state adding more than 640,000 jobs, bolstering his record on economic development. This will likely be a key point in his campaign to appeal to a broad spectrum of voters.
The 2026 Senate race is anticipated to be one of the most expensive in the country, potentially surpassing the $280 million spent during Tillis’s 2020 reelection campaign, which was the most costly Senate race in U.S. history at the time. Both parties are expected to invest heavily in television ads, social media outreach, and grassroots mobilization.
Down-ballot races will also feel the impact of this high-profile contest. A critical U.S. House race in northeastern North Carolina will test whether Democrats can hold onto a conservative-leaning seat represented by Don Davis. North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Anita Earls, a Democrat facing reelection in 2026, will also be a key figure in efforts to shift the court’s current Republican majority. Additionally, Democrats aim to flip a state Senate district in Nash County, Cooper’s home region, to strengthen Governor Stein’s veto power against the Republican-controlled legislature.
Meanwhile, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker made waves during the same Unity Dinner event with a keynote address that many interpreted as a presidential campaign launch. Pritzker, who has governed Illinois since 2019 and announced a third-term bid in 2026, used the platform to outline a bold Democratic agenda for a post-Trump America. His speech was marked by sharp condemnations of President Donald Trump and his administration’s policies, particularly on immigration and social justice issues.
Pritzker’s remarks included pointed critiques of Trump’s handling of due process, citing foundational American figures like Thomas Jefferson and Benjamin Franklin to underscore the importance of legal rights. He also took aim at Trump’s cabinet members, such as Homeland Security Secretary Kristie Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi, referencing controversies like the Jeffrey Epstein case. His blunt style resonated with attendees, who praised his willingness to confront Republicans directly and speak candidly about the challenges facing the nation.
North Carolina Democratic leaders echoed themes of resilience and readiness to fight. Senate Democratic Leader Syndey Batch condemned Republican efforts to shift funds from public education to private schools, roll back reproductive rights, and threaten Medicaid expansion. Batch emphasized the importance of grassroots activism, stating, “Nobody’s unleashing fire hoses at voter drives. Nobody’s hanging strange fruit from trees because we marched. The steepest price we’ll pay is sore calves from knocking doors, a raspy voice from speaking the truth, or a bruised ego because someone told you to sit down.”
Former Governor Roy Cooper’s anticipated Senate run, coupled with the energized Democratic base and the high stakes of the 2026 midterms, sets the stage for an intense political battle in North Carolina. With national implications for Senate control and the 2028 presidential race, all eyes will be on this southern battleground as candidates prepare to formally enter the race later this year.
