On November 24, 2024, Romania took to the polls for the first round of its presidential election, marking a pivotal moment as the country navigates through economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions arising from the war next door in Ukraine. This election, featuring thirteen candidates, is set against the backdrop of rising inflation and public dissatisfaction with established political parties, making it possible for the far-right to make significant gains.
The frontrunners are Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, representing the Social Democratic Party (PSD), and George Simion, leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). Early predictions indicate they are likely to proceed to the runoff set for December 8, should no candidate secure over 50 percent of the votes. By noon GMT, approximately 27 percent of registered voters had cast their ballots, as reported by Romania’s central election bureau, leaving the polls open until 19:00 GMT.
Marcel Ciolacu has emerged as the leading candidate, polling around 25 percent of voter support, compared to Simion's estimated 15 to 19 percent. Ciolacu's PSD has been shaping Romanian politics since the fall of communism but faces challenges as economic issues dominate the campaign. With inflation having peaked at 10 percent last year but expected to stabilize at around 5.5 percent by the end of 2024, public anger over living conditions has driven voters toward the far-right option.
Analysts observing the elections suggest Simion’s rise could rally right-leaning voters, particularly if he performs well during this first round. Cristian Pirvulescu, a Romanian political analyst, noted, “Romanian democracy is in danger for the first time since the fall of communism,” highlighting the gravity of the current political climate.
At the heart of the election is not just the candidates' platforms, but the broader socio-economic conditions faced by Romanian citizens. Economic struggles are tangible; many voters cite rising costs and the impact of economic issues on their daily lives as significant factors influencing their voting decisions. On the campaign trail, Simion has framed this election as one between the entrenched political elite and himself as the outsider determined to restore Romania’s economic sovereignty.
Notably, Simion has expressed opposition to military assistance for Ukraine, advocating instead for negotiations to end the war. His campaign rhetoric closely aligns with populist themes observed globally, especially mirroring strategies employed by far-right figures like Donald Trump. Not only does Simion tout nationalism, but he has also proposed unification with Moldova, ringing alarm bells among critics and drawing accusations of imprudent populism.
This blend of discontent with traditional politics and rising far-right sentiment resonates across various demographics. Voter dissatisfaction can be felt strongly, with many expressing fears about the country's direction should Simion ascend to the presidency. A 36-year-old IT worker, Oana Diaconu, stated her worries to reporters, saying, "I’m really afraid we’ll end up with Simion in the second round,” underlining the unpredictable nature of Simion’s appeal to the electorate.
The election stakes are high, especially considering Romania’s role within the European Union and NATO. Since the start of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, Romania has positioned itself as a supportive ally of Ukraine, overseeing the transport of grain and providing military aid including the Patriot missile defense system. Romania's 650-kilometer border with Ukraine adds to the complexity of its geopolitical stance and voter sentiments.
The prevailing sentiment among voters reflects genuine concerns about stability and economic recovery. Many residents lament the state of political leadership, with some recalling two-term President Klaus Iohannis's pro-European Union stance but criticizing him for perceived inadequacies against corruption. Mixed feelings about the candidates point to the broader tension within Raja between Euro-optimism and rising nationalism.
Elena Lasconi, leader of the Save Romania Union, is another figure to watch as analysts suggest her rising profile could sway moderate voters concerned about the drastic ideological shifts represented by either Ciolacu or Simion. Her campaign may be tapping the frustration felt by those who feel their interests are overlooked, potentially shaking up the traditional political dynamics dominated by the PSD.
The elections are framed within the larger narrative of Europe grappling with similar far-right populism, underscoring the need for vigilance among democratic institutions. The political atmosphere has stirred fears of backsliding on democratic norms, leading to calls for greater civic engagement to counter potential shifts toward more authoritarian governance.
The close attention paid to this presidential election indicates its potential not only to reshape Romanian politics but also to influence broader trends within the European political spectrum. Whatever the outcome on December 8, the electoral process reflects the growing division and discontent within societies grappling with economic hardships and the impact of global conflicts.
This election transcends mere national politics; it’s indicative of the struggles faced by many European democracies today, challenging them to safeguard their political integrity amid rising populism. Romanian voters are heading to the polls, ostensibly to make choices about their nation’s future, but the ramifications of those decisions may echo far beyond its borders.
