Romania may soon find itself at the forefront of international peacekeeping efforts, potentially acting as a hub for Western troops aimed at stabilizing Ukraine amid the continuing conflict with Russia. During a recent press conference, interim President Ilie Bolojan articulated Romania's readiness to support Ukraine, recognizing it as not only assistance to the victim fighting against aggression but also as a matter of national security for Romania itself. "We could be a center for the transit of these troops, and we can analyze it. [...] it's too early to discuss sending Romanian troops to Ukraine, as there was no peace agreement," Bolojan stated, emphasizing the need for thorough analysis before committing to any military deployment.
While Romania displays interest, there's notable hesitance within various European nations concerning the idea of sending peacekeeping troops. French President Emmanuel Macron previously floated the concept of deploying Western ground forces, but consensus among European countries was lacking at the time. Recently, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has expressed his government’s readiness to support British troops being sent to Ukraine contingent on the implementation of any peace agreement. Conversely, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz underscored the premature nature of such discussions, pointing out the persistent active phase of the war.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also signaled reluctance, stating Poland is not considering sending its soldiers for peacekeeping missions at this juncture. These varying stances reflect the complex dynamics within NATO as they weigh the potential consequences of sending troops, especially when speaking about remaining diplomatic and military support until concrete peace agreements are established.
Bolojan, reflecting on these discussions, asserted, "I hope and would like to see a peace agreement, but such an agreement will require guarantees; otherwise, it will not be functional." He elaborated on how peacekeepers might operate under international mandates, drawing parallels to similar peacekeeping operations seen historically, such as those established in Bosnia or Kosovo. The implication here is stark; without foundational agreements and mutual commitment, the efficacy and safety of any peacekeeping operations remain precarious.
Further complicate these matters, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu has made it clear Romania will not send troops to Ukraine until peace is definitively established. "I do not agree with sending forces as Romania will not participate with forces on Ukrainian territory; first, a peace agreement must be reached," Ciolacu stated. This sentiment was echoed by Crin Antonescu, the ruling coalition's candidate for the presidency, who reinforced this position through social media, declaring, "If I become president, we will not send troops to Ukraine. Period. We will continue to support Ukraine logistically and politically." This firm stance reflects Romania's cautious approach to the militarization of its support.
The backdrop for these discussions is dynamic, with NATO countries, underlined by the recent developments, weighing the possibility of a multinational peacekeeping force to guarantee security for Ukraine post-conflict. The Kremlin, responsive to these discussions, raised alarms about the proposition, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov recently signifying Russia's high concern over any such movement. These interactions contribute to the tense atmosphere where regional security continues to face uncertainty.
Romania's defense budget has also become part of the conversation surrounding military readiness and response to the eastward threat. Bolojan noted Romania's budget increased from below 1.5% of GDP to over 2.2% and forecasts suggest it will continue to rise, potentially reaching 3% within the next two years. This increase has garnered near-universal political support across the spectrum, marking it as one of Romania’s prioritized agendas amid the conflict.
"Given Romania's significant deficit, no government can ignore the need to reduce budgetary expenditures and access European funds to sustain this increase. These are the key points I will advocate for on behalf of Romania..." Bolojan confirmed during the press conference, thereby establishing the necessity for balancing military expenditures with fiscal responsibility.
Overall, as European leaders navigate the tumultuous waters of peacekeeping and military assistance, it is evident Romania stands poised for strategic involvement yet proceeds with cautious deliberation, seeking to uphold national security and fulfill its responsibilities to support Ukraine against continued aggression. The developments leading up to the extraordinary European Council meeting on March 6 will undoubtedly shape future commitments, not just for Romania, but for the entire region.