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08 May 2025

Rolls-Royce Shares Surge Amid Positive Market Sentiment

Renewed investor confidence drives Rolls-Royce stock up over 3% as trade deal prospects loom.

Shares in Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC (LON: RR) experienced a notable rise of 3.19% in early morning trading on Thursday, May 8, 2025, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the UK engineering giant. This surge comes as the broader FTSE 100 index also trends upward, buoyed by expectations of supportive monetary policy and ongoing strength in the industrial sector.

As trading commenced, Rolls-Royce shares opened at 776.40p and quickly advanced to an intraday high of 780.00p before settling around 781.20p by midday. This upward movement represents a significant rebound from the previous close of 766.00p, bringing the company’s market capitalization to nearly £66 billion. Currently, the stock is trading just 4.5% below its 52-week high of 818.00p, achieved in March 2025, which underscores the resilience of Rolls-Royce’s recent rally.

The early morning surge can be attributed to several key factors. Firstly, Rolls-Royce continues to benefit from a robust order pipeline in its civil aerospace and defense divisions, with demand for engines and services remaining solid. Additionally, the company’s proactive measures to mitigate the impact of international tariffs have reassured investors regarding its ability to protect margins and sustain profitability in a challenging global environment.

Moreover, positive sentiment across the UK industrial sector, along with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England, has lifted stocks like Rolls-Royce that are sensitive to economic cycles. Over the past month, Rolls-Royce shares have shown significant volatility, ranging from a low of 735.20p to a high of 818.00p. The company’s price-to-earnings ratio currently stands at approximately 26, reflecting investor optimism about future earnings growth. With a dividend yield of 0.77%, Rolls-Royce remains an attractive option for income-focused investors seeking exposure to the engineering and aerospace sectors.

Analysts are cautiously optimistic, noting that while the stock is approaching its recent highs, the company’s strategic initiatives and operational improvements continue to support its upward trajectory. In fact, the Rolls-Royce share price has skyrocketed by an astonishing 853% over the past three years, with an additional 83% increase in the last year alone. The stock has climbed more than 20% in just the past month.

However, potential investors should be mindful of the high price-to-earnings ratio of 38, which, although down from 44 just a couple of months ago, still raises concerns about valuation. Global trade remains a worry, and any economic slowdown might weigh on aviation demand. Supply chain issues or delivery delays in the Civil Aerospace division cannot be ruled out either. Despite these challenges, reports of a new UK-US trade deal have lifted the share price another 2% in early trading.

Rolls-Royce reported a strong start to 2024, with Chief Executive Tufan Erginbilgiç expressing confidence in the company’s ability to absorb tariff impacts. Underlying operating profit and free cash flow for 2025 are expected to land between £2.7 billion and £2.9 billion, indicating robust demand across all divisions. Civil Aerospace continues to perform well, with large engine flying hours nearing 110% of pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, the imminent certification of a new Trent 1000 turbine blade is expected to double time on wing.

In addition to its civil aerospace successes, Rolls-Royce's Defence division is holding steady as the Ukraine conflict continues, while its Power Systems arm boasts a book-to-bill ratio of 1.5, driven by demand from data centers. The company is also awaiting a crucial decision in June from Great British Nuclear regarding its small modular reactor bid, which could have significant implications for its future growth.

On the political front, Prime Minister Keir Starmer hinted at a potential trade deal with the US during a statement on defense, describing closer collaboration as “indispensable” for economic security. This development is particularly significant for Rolls-Royce, which relies heavily on streamlined trade to reduce inventory and logistics costs.

Starmer's comments came after a difficult period for Rolls-Royce, during which the company lost £10 billion in value due to tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump. The stock plummeted to a low of 635p after Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were announced, wiping £10 billion off the company’s market value. Before the announcement, Rolls-Royce shares were trading at an all-time high of 800p.

Despite these challenges, Rolls-Royce has managed to recover, surpassing 750p and achieving its highest price since the imposition of tariffs. The firm also joined other defense stocks in a significant rally earlier this year after Starmer pledged to increase defense spending to its highest level in decades, raising the UK’s arms spending from 2.3% to 2.5% of GDP by 2027.

In its recent full-year results, Rolls-Royce reported an underlying profit of £2.5 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of between £2.1 billion and £2.3 billion. Revenue topped £17.8 billion, also surpassing analyst consensus of around £17.3 billion, further solidifying the company’s position as a key player in the aerospace and defense sectors.

In summary, while Rolls-Royce's stock has shown remarkable growth and resilience, potential investors should weigh the current valuation against the backdrop of global economic uncertainties and the company’s strategic initiatives. As the firm continues to navigate these challenges, its ability to adapt and thrive will be crucial for maintaining investor confidence and driving future growth.