Rocket Lab USA (NASDAQ:RKLB) has captured Wall Street’s attention once again with a significant surge in its stock price and a bullish outlook from analysts. On Monday morning, the company’s shares jumped 8%, fueled by Citi analyst Jason Gursky’s decision to raise the price target from $33 to $50, marking the highest valuation on Wall Street for the space company. This bullish sentiment is rooted in a strategic shift in valuation methodology, extending the revenue forecast horizon to 2029, reflecting a more mature business model and the company’s expanding footprint in the satellite and launch services sector.
Gursky’s analysis projects Rocket Lab’s revenue to reach approximately $2.6 billion by 2029, driven primarily by an expected 20 Neutron rocket launches annually and increased satellite construction contracts, particularly from U.S. government programs. The Neutron rocket, a centerpiece of Rocket Lab’s future growth, is designed as a reusable medium-class launch vehicle, aiming to compete in the burgeoning market for satellite deployment and defense-related space missions. The analyst’s model also factors in around $50 million in annual revenues from the Geost acquisition, anticipated to close in the latter half of 2025.
Applying a 15x revenue multiple, Gursky arrives at an estimated valuation of roughly $72 per share, which he discounts back at Rocket Lab’s weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 13% to set a 12-month price target of $50. This methodology underscores a long-term confidence in the company’s ability to scale and capitalize on emerging opportunities in space technology.
The stock’s momentum has been remarkable, delivering a staggering 590.8% return over the past year. This performance reflects investor enthusiasm for Rocket Lab’s expanding capabilities and strategic acquisitions. Other institutional investors have also been active; for example, Sandy Spring Bank initiated a new position worth about $26,000 in late 2024, while Versant Capital Management more than doubled its stake in the first quarter of 2025. MassMutual Private Wealth & Trust and Farther Finance Advisors also increased their holdings, signaling broad confidence among hedge funds and institutional investors, who collectively own 71.78% of the company’s stock.
Despite this optimism, insiders have been selling shares as well. Frank Klein, a key insider, sold 44,885 shares on May 30, 2025, at an average price of $26.66, reducing his stake by 3.17%. Similarly, Arjun Kampani sold nearly 29,000 shares on the same day, decreasing his ownership by 5.09%. Insider transactions in the last quarter amounted to over 1.1 million shares sold, valued at nearly $30 million. Nonetheless, insiders still hold a significant 13.7% stake in Rocket Lab, indicating continued commitment to the company’s future.
Rocket Lab’s recent financials show a company in growth mode but still facing profitability challenges. The firm reported quarterly earnings on May 8, 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of negative $0.12, missing analyst expectations by $0.02. Revenue for the quarter was $122.57 million, slightly above estimates and up 32.1% year-over-year, signaling robust top-line growth. However, the company recorded a negative net margin of 44.32% and a return on equity of -48.92%, reflecting ongoing investments and operational costs associated with scaling its business.
Analysts remain cautiously optimistic. The Goldman Sachs Group initiated coverage on Rocket Lab in late June 2025 with a neutral rating and a $27 price target. Conversely, KeyCorp raised its price target to $40 and assigned an overweight rating, citing growth momentum in the company’s Launch Services and Space Systems divisions. KeyCorp also highlighted Rocket Lab’s successful integration of recent acquisitions and progress with the Neutron rocket, which they believe positions the company well for a share of the Space Development Agency’s upcoming contract, potentially exceeding $515 million.
Other firms have echoed this positive outlook. Cantor Fitzgerald maintained an overweight rating with a $35 target, while Needham & Company and Stifel Nicolaus also raised their price targets to $32 and $34 respectively, both issuing buy ratings. MarketBeat.com data shows that among analysts covering Rocket Lab, four have hold ratings, seven have buy ratings, and one has given a strong buy rating, resulting in a consensus “Moderate Buy” with an average target price of $30.40.
Rocket Lab’s operational advancements further support the optimistic projections. The company recently awarded a contract to Bollinger Shipyards in Louisiana to build an ocean landing platform, dubbed "Return On Investment," for its Neutron reusable rocket. The platform is expected to be delivered by early 2026 and will facilitate the rocket’s recovery after launch, a critical capability for reducing costs and increasing launch frequency. This development aligns with Rocket Lab’s strategy to compete in the reusable launch vehicle market, a space currently dominated by a few major players.
In 2025 alone, Rocket Lab completed 10 Electron launches, with plans to exceed 20 by year-end. The Electron rocket, designed for small satellite deployment, has been a workhorse for the company, establishing its reputation and operational track record. Additionally, Rocket Lab has made significant progress in manufacturing Archimedes engines, producing multiple units monthly, which will power the Neutron rocket and enhance production scalability.
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. continues to offer a broad range of space solutions, including spacecraft design, manufacturing, and constellation management services. Its focus on both commercial and government contracts positions it well to benefit from the growing demand for satellite launches and space-based infrastructure.
All these factors—analyst upgrades, institutional buying, insider activity, operational milestones, and financial performance—paint a picture of a company on the cusp of significant growth, albeit with challenges typical of rapidly scaling aerospace ventures. Investors and industry watchers will be keenly observing Rocket Lab’s progress as it navigates the competitive and capital-intensive space sector.