Global health experts are on high alert as the avian influenza virus, H5N1, continues to spread among animals and has recently begun posing risks to humans. With millions of chickens culled across Canada and the United States, as well as rising infections among livestock, the threat of another pandemic reminiscent of the recent COVID-19 crisis cannot be ignored.
Caroline Quach-Thanh, an infectious disease specialist, shares her concerns, stating, "It’s clear we’re all tired of this, even those of us working in the field. Give me three years until the next pandemic. I don’t want to hear about it!" Yet, she emphasizes the necessity of discussing the H5N1 situation, even when the current risk to people remains low.
Since February 2022, when this latest outbreak emerged, approximately sixty cases of H5N1 flu have been confirmed among humans, predominantly among those working closely with infected agricultural animals. Notably, only two cases among these individuals showed severe symptoms, one being a British Columbia teen who contracted a different strain. Currently, the virus does not transmit between humans, but experts warn this could change. "It takes several genetic mutations before the virus can adhere more effectively to human cells," Quach-Thanh explains.
Alarmingly, the very same strain causing infections is now down to the brink of mutational capability, according to findings published on December 5, 2024, which suggests the virus is closer than before to acquiring the traits necessary for human transmission. The study has prompted concerns among epidemiologists, especially as inadequate testing and monitoring have allowed the virus to thrive unchecked across agricultural sites, particularly alarming is California, where nearly 600 herds have been infected.
The risk heightened recently with the discovery of H5N1-infected pigs, known to be excellent vessels for mixing various viral strains, creating additional potential pathways for mutations and human infections. The current state of preparedness and surveillance, particularly compared to Canada, raises worries. While Canadian health authorities have maintained tighter controls over H5N1, U.S. actions seem sluggish, with state-level emergency declarations lagging behind the developments of the outbreak.
Global efforts are being initiated to counteract potential crises, and the United Kingdom has even procured five million doses of the H5 vaccine as part of its pandemic preparedness strategies. Yet, this is merely scratching the surface of what could be needed to combat the possibility of widespread human infections.
Despite the recent increasing number of infections, the general perception is one of complacency as many view avian influenza as yet another infectious disease—contributed by the collective trauma experienced during COVID-19, where misinformation and panic were rampant. Quach-Thanh notes, "People are still reeling from the pandemic. No one wants to hear about another one because they don’t want to relive those painful years. We may still collectively be experiencing post-traumatic shock. Still, this doesn’t justify ignoring warnings from experts." The request for the public to remain vigilant is echoed strongly; letting H5N1 fester among animal populations without adequate interventions could lead unwittingly to dire circumstances.
H5N1 has been widely recognized for the severity of its impact, with a mortality rate of approximately 30% when it infects humans. Currently, it cannot effectively transmit between persons, but experts stress the importance of acting preemptively before viral mutations occur. "It only takes one mutation for the virus to acquire the ability to spread more easily among people, which could trigger widespread transmission," warns Quach-Thanh.
Providing additional caution, she highlights, "Even though our current systems have successfully prevented outbreaks from the avian flu from spilling over more extensively, persistent government focus on surveillance and public health strategies are imperative. Once the bird flu mutations happen, governments must be ready to respond swiftly to mitigate potential crises."
The moral is clear: While the public may be fatigued by discussions of pandemics and disease outbreaks, staying informed and prepared is our best defense against potential future health crises. Experts like Quach-Thanh advocate for sustained public health engagement, of which includes strengthening surveillance regimes, investing research, and public awareness campaigns about avian influenza and its risks. After all, the best time to prepare for the next outbreak is now.
