With bated breath and fervor across the Union Territory, the counting of votes kicked off for all 90 assembly constituencies of Jammu and Kashmir at the early hour of 8 am on Tuesday, October 8, 2024. The anticipation was palpable among the electorate and political observers alike as the future of 873 candidates was at stake, including notable figures from major regional parties like the National Conference (NC), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress, and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
The political atmosphere was charged as supporters gathered at counting centers throughout the 20 districts, waiting for the results to declare the victors of this pivotal election. Among the candidates, former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, Vice President of NC, expressed confidence as he aimed for leads from Budgam and Ganderbal constituencies, vocally wishing his colleagues good luck on platform X, stating, “We fought the good fight & now, I hope the results will reflect our efforts.”
The counting process was methodically organized, with Chief Electoral Officer P.K. Pole announcing the establishment of 28 counting centers across J&K. The initial phase of the counting process began with postal votes, adhering to set protocols to maintain the integrity of the electoral process. This election marked the first elected assembly formation since the abrogation of Article 370 and the consequent bifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir, which transitioned from being a state to two Union Territories.
Security measures were elevated across the region with Section 144 imposed around all counting centers, as authorities braced for potential victory processions from winning candidates and their supporters. A three-tier security arrangement was reported to be enacted, ensuring only authorized counting agents and counting staff were allowed within the counting halls.
The 2024 Assembly elections had garnered a voter turnout of 63.45%, which was less than the 65.52% recorded during the 2014 elections. The polls unfolded over three phases, with the first phase involving elections for 24 seats, followed by 26 seats and concluding with 40 seats. The voter turnout highlighted the competitive spirit within the constituencies, manifesting the electorate's determination to engage and influence their political representation.
Exit poll predictions hinted at NC-Congress alliance performing strongly, with projections indicating the alliance could potentially secure 50 seats. The National Conference independently was believed to be leading in at least 42 seats, with Congress securing notable shares as well. Conversely, the BJP was anticipated to improve its standings from the 25 seats won previously, drawing closer to the projected numbers. The results would be pivotal, especially for the PDP, which, coming from 28 seats previously, was expected to see a significant decrease potentially claiming under 10 this time around.
Beyond just the NC and Congress, other political parties like the People's Conference, Apni Party, Awami Ittehad Party, and CPI(M) were also vying for representation, albeit their chances appeared limited according to pre-election analyses. Together with Independents, these parties were speculated to claim around 10 seats, outlining the fragmentation of political allegiance within the voter base.
On expected results, many prominent political figures were on edge. Omar Abdullah led early trends, and other significant candidates included Ali Mohammad Sagar for the NC and Sajad Gani Lone from the People’s Conference, who were also believed to be gaining traction early on. Meanwhile, Iltija Mufti of the PDP, daughter of former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti, was falling behind her competitors, signaling potential shifts within the traditional voter base of her party.
Historical comparisons with the previous assembly elections highlighted major fluctuations within the political narratives of the region. The established parties are grappling to solidify their foothold amid changing voter sentiments, particularly focusing on issues surrounding governance, security, and economic stability following years of political upheaval.
Jammu and Kashmir's latest elections represent more than just numbers; they embody decades of conflict, aspirations for self-governance, and the resilience of its people. With the first elected assembly forming under the new governance structure, the outcome of these elections holds ramifications not only for the political parties but for the aspirations of the residents within J&K.
Developments during the day promised dynamic twists as the counting continued, and trends began to solidify, shaping the pathways for potential coalition formations and governance structures. Observers and analysts alike remained poised to decipher the outcomes and their ramifications as the clock ticked down on one of the most awaited electoral events in the region's recent history.
