Republicans have solidified their control over key state legislatures following the results of the 2024 elections, marking significant political changes across multiple states, including Arizona and North Carolina. With elections results confirming their strength, the GOP is preparing to navigate the legislative challenges and opportunities awaiting them.
For the first time since 2020, the Republican Party has expanded its stronghold within the Arizona state legislature. There, Republicans gained one seat, bringing the Senate majority to 17-13, and seized two additional House seats, leading to a 33-27 composition. Speaker-elect Steve Montenegro, R-Goodyear, expressed optimism about the party's position, stating, "We are stronger than ever before right now." This came on the heels of significant Democratic spending efforts to flip various chambers, which were unsuccessful. “The last election showed ... Democrats have spent tens of millions of dollars to try to flip the chambers but they’ve done so unsuccessfully,” Montenegro added.
The GOP accomplished this feat by flipping three legislative districts, statistically regarded as swing areas: Legislative Districts 4, 13, and 16, signaling strong support for Republican candidates among voters who may have once leaned Democratic. Representative-elect Jeff Weninger, R-Chandler, alongside Rep. Julie Willoughby, R-Chandler, successfully bested their Democratic rivals, indicating favorable conditions for Republican campaigns.
Despite these gains, Democrats were disappointed, as they have not managed to hold majorities simultaneously since the 1960s. The Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's goal to regain control of the state chambers certainly didn’t materialize as envisioned. "Arizona's legislative chambers will remain in Republican control," emphasized ADLCC Executive Director Elsa O’Callaghan, underscoring the GOP's continuing influence.
Meanwhile, the Republican supermajority also managed to navigate through contentious legislative landscapes outside Arizona. A pivotal event occurred recently in North Carolina where lawmakers moved quickly to override Democratic Governor Roy Cooper's veto of Senate Bill 382. This bill, among other things, will shift election board appointments from the governor, who has held this power, to the newly elected Republican state auditor, creating the potential for Republican control over local election boards.
With this restructuring, the state has transitioned to have Republicans hold the majority on the State Board of Elections for the first time since Cooper's administration began eight years ago. Democrats have raised concerns, stating in their lawsuit against these changes, "This blatantly partisan restructuring of the state board is — once again — unconstitutional." They argue this will undermine confidence in elections and goes against the democratic principles of the state government.
Compounding matters, SB 382 reduces the timeframe for voters to fix provisional ballots, limiting the “curing” period from nine days to three, which has sparked additional criticism on the sufficiency of election oversight. “This makes substantial administrative changes ... especially during high turnout elections,” warned Karen Brinson Bell, executive director of the State Board of Elections, emphasizing potential challenges for election workers as deadlines grow tighter without additional funding.
While Republicans have made these legislative strides, they also face scrutiny over their strategies. A survey from Noble Predictive Insights revealed shifting sentiments, with 45% of voters believing Republicans are now more capable of managing the state compared to 41% for Democrats, indicating potentially favorable conditions for future elections.
Nationally, the GOP is gearing up for controlling the U.S. Senate as they enter the 119th Congress with a 53-47 majority. They remain seven seats shy of the 60 needed to break filibusters. Incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune has mapped out committee assignments for his conference, and both Mississippi Senators, Roger Wicker and Cindy Hyde-Smith, are anticipated to play strategic roles as influential members within their respective committees.
Wicker, who will potentially chair the Senate Armed Services Committee, could heavily influence military concerns within Mississippi, whereas Hyde-Smith’s appointments to several key committees signal growth for the Republican agenda relevant to her constituency.
The political scene is rapidly changing. Republican control over state legislatures and the U.S. Senate paves the way for legislative maneuvers and the shaping of policies affecting millions. With both parties likely preparing for upcoming challenges, the current Republican-led agendas will continue to be influential as America approaches another election season.
