Regional powers are stepping up their diplomatic outreach to Syria as the country navigates through its new leadership following the standoff against former dictator Bashar al-Assad. High-level meetings between Jordanian and Qatari officials and Syria’s new leadership, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham chief Ahmed al-Sharaa, are indicators of changing tides within the region.
Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi met with al-Sharaa on December 23, 2023. This meeting, alongside one involving Qatari Minister of State Mohammed bin Abdulaziz bin Saleh al-Khulaifi—which marked the first visit to Syria by a high-ranking Qatari official in 13 years—highlights the growing importance both nations place on restoring relations with Syria.
For Jordan, the complexity of its relationship with Syria can't be overstated. They share a 375-kilometer border, which has often been fraught with issues ranging from refugee crises to security threats. Jordan has borne much of the burden since the Syrian civil war began, with over 680,000 Syrian refugees currently residing within its borders. The importance of maintaining security and territorial integrity has become increasingly urgent, especially after the sudden shift, removing Assad's decade-long hold on power.
During their meetings, officials discussed various topics, with Safadi reiteratively calling for the unity of Syria’s territory and the stability of its institutions. Mohammed al-Momani, the Jordanian government spokesman, emphasized, “The Jordanian position on the recent events in Syria... expresses the sincerity of relations between the two brotherly countries.” This reflects Jordan's determination to facilitate safe and mutually beneficial relations with its neighbor.
Qatar’s foray back onto the Syrian diplomatic stage also signifies broader regional shifts. Qatar, once aligned with those opposing Assad, is now reconsidering its stance. The fact this visit attracts attention is indicative not just of Qatar's willingness to mend relations, but it also displays how Gulf states are recalibrated, shifting gears to new equations as the previous regime loses its dominance.
These engagements are not occurring in isolation but come on the back of previous hesitations and efforts to revive economic and political dialogue with Syria, particularly concerning the relationship dynamics post-Assad. Jordan, which historically sought to back Syrian rebels as part of broader U.S. and U.K. cooperation, has watched the situation evolve dramatically, with the balance of power now firmly resting with the new Islamist-led government.
The meetings, including one attended by both foreign ministers, have drawn the attention of the international community. Some hope these discussions will restore some semblance of economic normalcy and invite necessary foreign investments back to Syria, which has suffered tremendously from years of war and instability. Safadi's remarks during the meetings reflect Jordan's intent to play a stabilizing role as neighboring countries contemplate how to engage with the newly structured leadership.
Jordan has also facilitated meetings involving various Arab nations, showing its commitment to regional cooperation aimed at countering destabilizing elements and cementing security. Alongside the calls for support, Jordan’s historical connection to Syria adds layers of complexity to these discussions, particularly as shared cultural ties and familial connections persist across the mutual border.
For some regional actors, such as Iran, the changing dynamics also call for reassessments of their strategies and influence across the region. Iran’s role historically as Assad’s main supporter might face challenges as new leaders emerge who might not align ideologically or strategically with Tehran.
Notably, the Syrian conflict’s repercussions have been felt deeply within Jordan, which is also strategically positioned concerning the rural and urban areas impacted by the influx of Syrian refugees throughout the conflict. Jordan has previously dealt with substantial ISIS threats during the civil war and has remained vigilant against any resurgence of extremist movements.
Faced with drug smuggling challenges and the constant ebb and flow of transnational threats, Jordan seeks to leverage its meetings with Syrian officials to not only reinforce its own national security strategies but to also develop collective actions across shared borders.
This historic meeting arrives at a pivotal moment of transition for Syria, as the international community watches closely for signs of stability and indications of how the new leadership will approach both internal governance and international relations.
Through these diplomatic overtures, both Jordan and Qatar signal their readiness to engage with the newly emerged Syrian leadership, acknowledging the shifting realities and the potential for future cooperative initiatives. How the region responds over the coming months could reshape alliances and potentially stabilize the broader Middle Eastern geopolitical spectrum.
