In a seismic shift that’s rattling the foundations of British politics, Reform UK—once dismissed as a fringe movement—has emerged as a formidable force, poised to reshape the electoral landscape not only in England but now, increasingly, north of the border in Scotland. Led by the ever-persistent Nigel Farage, Reform UK’s ascendancy is sending shockwaves through both the Conservative and Labour parties, igniting debates about the future of the United Kingdom’s political order and the issues that truly move the electorate.
For many, the story of Reform UK is inextricably tied to the career of Farage, a political figure who has refused to fade into obscurity despite numerous setbacks. According to recent reporting, Farage, once an also-ran in previous elections, is now an elected MP and, remarkably, bookmakers see him as the 7/4 odds-on favourite to become Prime Minister in 2029. The party he leads was born out of the ashes of the Brexit Party, itself a successor to the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), which Farage led to prominence during the heated debates over Britain’s membership in the European Union.
The 2024 UK general election marked a turning point. The Conservative Party, haunted by the specter of losing support to Farage’s hardline anti-EU stance, had once used the promise of a Brexit referendum to shore up its base. That gambit paid off in 2015, and UKIP faded after the 2016 Brexit vote. Yet Farage was not so easily dispatched. He left UKIP in 2018, founded the Brexit Party, and by 2021 had rebranded it as Reform UK, siphoning off Conservative voters dissatisfied with the status quo. The issue galvanizing this movement? Immigration. As noted by commentators, “Immigration is the issue of our times on which the popularity of Reform is primarily based and on which it is poised to eclipse the Conservatives.”
This isn’t just a story of English politics. In Scotland, Reform UK’s rise has been nothing short of dramatic. By September 2025, the party had managed to attract eighteen Scottish councillors, including notable defections from both the Conservative and Labour camps—such as Gavin Ellis from Dunfermline North and Labour’s Julia McDougall. Even a Conservative Member of the Scottish Parliament, Graham Simpson, has joined their ranks. The momentum is reflected in the polls: the latest surveys show Reform UK at 16% for the upcoming May 2026 Scottish Parliament elections, nipping at Labour’s heels (17%) and potentially on track for sixteen seats, or even more.
Professor Sir John Curtice, a widely respected election analyst, has predicted that Reform UK could win as many as 21 seats, possibly becoming the second-largest party behind the Scottish National Party (SNP). The party’s near-upset in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, where their candidate Ross Lambie came within 1,500 votes of victory despite a lack of local infrastructure, has only added to the sense of inevitability among some observers.
What’s fueling this surge? Beyond the headline issue of immigration, there is a palpable sense of frustration among segments of the Scottish public. In towns like Falkirk, Dunfermline, and Perth, recent weeks have seen peaceful but passionate protests over the use of hotels—funded by taxpayers—for housing asylum seekers. The tragic case of a 15-year-old girl raped by Sadeq Nikzad, a 29-year-old Afghan asylum seeker later sentenced to nine years in prison, has intensified public concern and further polarized the debate. Glasgow, meanwhile, faces a staggering £90 million budget gap for 2026, with £66 million attributed to homelessness, a crisis exacerbated by the influx of asylum seekers and the city’s legal obligation to provide accommodation for all.
This confluence of social anxiety and economic strain has left Scotland’s political establishment deeply unsettled. According to The Herald, First Minister John Swinney convened a political summit in Edinburgh to discuss “the threat of the far Right,” conspicuously excluding Reform UK from the conversation. Some voices in the media have called for aggressive pushback against what they perceive as the party’s divisive rhetoric, while others warn that such tactics risk deepening public alienation and fueling the very movement they seek to contain.
Euroscepticism, often assumed to be an English phenomenon, is far from absent in Scotland. During the 2016 EU referendum, 38% of Scots voted Leave—over a million people, more than the number who voted SNP in the subsequent general election. As UK In A Changing Europe reported, a significant chunk of SNP voters supported Brexit, underscoring the complexity of Scottish political identity and the potential for Reform UK to tap into a rich vein of disaffection.
The collapse of the Scottish Conservatives has further opened the door for Reform. Once a dominant force—indeed, in 1955, the Scottish Unionists (as the Tories were then known) secured over 50% of the vote—the party now finds itself tied with the Liberal Democrats at just 12% in recent polls. Leadership woes, a lack of compelling ideas, and a string of defections have left the Conservatives vulnerable to a populist insurgency. As one former Conservative MSP put it, he simply “grew weary of working alongside people so stupid.”
Labour, too, has been rocked by scandal. By mid-August 2025, five Labour councillors had been suspended for inappropriate conduct, including allegations ranging from sexual abuse to fraud. The sacking of Ian Murray, a respected Labour MP and Secretary of State for Scotland, in a recent cabinet reshuffle, has stoked further resentment and led some to contemplate protest votes as a means of expressing their disillusionment with the political class.
Meanwhile, the SNP, long the dominant force in Scottish politics, is facing its own internal crises. From the fallout over trans rights debates to the ongoing repercussions of the Alex Salmond affair, the party’s claim to speak for all of Scotland is increasingly contested. Critics accuse the SNP leadership of being out of touch, more interested in policing language and behavior than addressing bread-and-butter issues like schools, hospitals, and housing.
Against this backdrop, Reform UK’s populist message—centered on immigration control, Euroscepticism, and a rejection of what it calls “woke ideology”—has found a receptive audience. The party’s critics argue that scapegoating immigrants and refugees is no substitute for genuine solutions to the country’s problems, and warn against repeating the mistakes of the past. Yet the parallels with earlier political realignments are hard to ignore. As one observer noted, “Can Reform and its leader Nigel Farage… replace the Conservatives like Labour did the Liberals?”
History shows that British politics is no stranger to upheaval. In the 1920s, the Labour Party rose from the margins to supplant the Liberals as the main alternative to the Conservatives, driven by the empowerment of the working class and a hunger for social justice. Today, Reform UK is attempting a similar feat—albeit from the right, and with a very different set of priorities. Whether this movement will prove to be a fleeting protest or a lasting realignment remains to be seen. But for now, the political winds in both England and Scotland are blowing in a direction few would have predicted just a few years ago.
As the next election looms, all eyes will be on Reform UK and its mercurial leader. The party’s rise is a testament to the volatility of modern politics—and a reminder that, in the end, it is events, not odds, that determine the outcome.
