Membership of Reform UK, the anti-immigration political party led by Nigel Farage, has surpassed the Conservative Party for the first time, marking what Farage has termed as a "historic moment" for both parties. The announcement, made on Boxing Day, December 26, 2023, revealed the digital counter on the Reform UK website had ticked past the Conservative's reported membership number of 131,680, which was noted during their recent leadership election.
Farage, who has been vocal about the changing political tides, stated, "The youngest political party in British politics has just overtaken the oldest political party in the world." This comment reflects on not just the numbers but the shifting attitudes and dissatisfaction among voters previously aligned with the Conservatives, who have held power for 14 years before being ousted at the recent general election.
The rise of Reform UK can be associated with its strong stance on immigration, which was a key issue during the recent ballot box battles. With immigration policies and related public sentiment being pivotal to political discussions, it seems the electorate is finding resonance with the narrative Reform UK brings to the table.
Chairman Zia Yusuf echoed Farage's sentiment, representing this surge as the breaking of the "centuries-long stranglehold on the centre-right of British politics by the Tories". This statement points to the long-standing dominance of the Conservative Party over the right-wing political space within the UK and indicates potential for Reform UK to fill what many see as a void left by the Conservatives' struggles.
The Conservatives' membership numbers have been declining. The 131,680 members eligible to vote during their leadership election is noted as the lowest recorded level. Last year, this number was significantly higher, around 172,000, highlighting the party's decline over the transition from leadership under Rishi Sunak. This drop not only reflects internal party issues but also the growing disapproval from long-time supporters. A spokesperson for the Conservative Party downplayed Reform UK's success, asserting their actions contributed to the rise of Labour government policies affecting the electorate negatively.
With this transition, doubts have emerged about whether this shift translates to real campaigners or grassroots activism for Reform UK. Luke Tryl, director of the think tank More in Common , pointed out the opaque nature of party membership numbers, which makes comparisons tricky. He stated, "Parties are notoriously opaque about this sort of thing," referring to the challenges of accurately measuring membership engagement and effectiveness.
While Reform UK boasts impressive membership growth, Tryl emphasizes the unknowns about how these new members will engage with the party. Will they simply remain as warm bodies on the rolls, or will they participate actively, canvassing, engaging with the community, and working at the grassroots level? The question remains—how effectively can Reform UK channel this growth to advance its party goals?
Clearly, the recent political dynamics have positioned Reform UK as not just another fringe party, but as contenders for the core centre-right space traditionally held by the Conservatives. The challenges for the Conservative Party are becoming evident as they must grapple with fluctuations from their membership level through leadership changes and public discontent.
From the rising stars within Reform UK to the party's restructuring to become member-owned, it appears the political narrative is rapidly shifting. The party is expected to capitalize on its momentum during upcoming elections, leveraging its expansive membership to present itself as the viable alternative to the Conservative Party's faltering political foothold.
This unprecedented shift hints at potential upheaval within British politics and has left observers questioning the future of not only the Conservatives but the entire political climate as parties strive to redefine themselves to appeal to the British electorate.
Overall, as the political scene evolves, the next few months could prove to be significant for Reform UK as they seek to build on this recent success and engage their membership effectively.
