In an unexpected twist for British politics, the internal turmoil within Reform UK has not significantly impacted the party's support among the electorate. Earlier this month, a public spat erupted between party leader Nigel Farage and MP Rupert Lowe, who was subsequently suspended amid allegations of bullying. Despite this conflict, polling data indicates that Reform UK is experiencing a surge in popularity, particularly in Scotland.
The friction between Farage and Lowe has drawn considerable media attention, with Lowe calling Reform a “protest party” and questioning Farage’s leadership abilities in a recent interview with the Daily Mail. Lowe’s remarks sparked a backlash from Farage, who labeled his behavior as "disgusting" and damaging to the party. Just two days after this interview, the party suspended Lowe over accusations of bullying two former staff members and allegedly threatening the party's chair, Zia Yusuf, which has been reported to the police.
According to Luke Tryl, executive director of the More in Common think-tank, “Reform UK appears to have weathered the Rupert Lowe controversy relatively unscathed. Unlike Farage, Lowe isn’t a household name – even among Reform voters.” These internal disputes have yet to shift public perceptions of the party significantly.
The most recent polling from Survation indicates that support for Reform UK stands between 23% and 25%, showing an upward trend, especially in Scotland, where they have garnered more popularity than any time in the past. The Survation poll results from March 6-13, 2025, highlighted this increase with the party receiving 17% support in Scotland, reflecting a 4% increase since January.
As the country gears up for local elections on May 1, 2025, Reform UK is poised to take advantage of the upcoming council seats, where more than 1,600 are available. Currently, the party holds nine seats, but it is expected to make gains, particularly at the expense of Labour and Conservative candidates. There is a palpable anticipation regarding a likely by-election in Runcorn, which promises to test Reform's claim of rising public support.
However, it’s important to note that of the 224 council by-elections conducted since July 2024, Reform has only managed to win 12, a statistic that raises questions about converting their polling popularity into actual electoral success.
While Reform UK moves forward, Labour is intensifying its strategy to counteract the potential threat posed by Farage's party. Jonathan Ashworth, former MP and now chief executive of the Labour Together think-tank, stressed the importance of scrutinizing Reform UK, stating, “Labour has to continue to put Reform under scrutiny because voters don’t like Farage’s unpatriotic fawning over Putin.” He further emphasized that illustrating Reform's past comments about the NHS would resonate with voters concerned about the party's credibility.
Additionally, there have been significant developments in Glasgow, with the SNP winning two vital by-elections. Mhairi Hunter won the Southside Central ward, while Donna McGill was elected in Glasgow North East, casting shadows on Reform's ambitions in those areas. Despite Farage's hopes for success, the party fell short in the Glasgow North East by-election, where their candidate obtained only 472 votes compared to Labour’s 573 and the SNP’s 689 in the first round. This race illustrates the stiff competition Reform faces beyond simply maintaining internal cohesion.
With looming elections approaching, the stakes are high for the party as they strive to solidify their standing and convert the polling numbers into tangible victories. Attention now turns to how Reform UK handles its internal dynamics while presenting a united front to the electorate. As Farage prepares for possible challenges to his leadership and electoral hopes, Gawain Towler, a former spin doctor for the party, remarked, “About 2% are really upset...but if anything, it’s made them more determined.” He pointed out that party members recognize this tumultuous period could either prove detrimental or serve as a catalyst for change if handled effectively.
As the election day approaches, the party continues to navigate the political landscape filled with hurdles, not only from Labour but also from other opposition parties. The challenges of converting public support into actual voting success will likely prompt debates and strategies on the ground, signaling possibly transformative shifts in British politics.
A spokesperson for Reform UK has claimed, “The latest polling confirms what we all know – Reform has all the momentum in British politics. Voters feel betrayed and let down by all parties, whether that be Labour, the Tories, or the SNP in Scotland. They are crying out for real change, and that’s what we intend to give them.” With such strong claims about their potential impact, only time will tell if Reform UK can harness this momentum into a substantial political presence come May 1.
