With the regular season rapidly winding down, the National League playoff race has transformed into a white-knuckle sprint, with the Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets locked in a battle that few saw coming just a month ago. Back on August 29, 2025, the Reds’ playoff odds lingered in the low single digits, leaving even their own fans bracing for another lost autumn. But baseball, as it so often does, has a way of making fools of the best-laid predictions.
Since that late August date, the Reds have clawed their way back into the postseason conversation, peaking at a 43.5% chance to make the playoffs—a dramatic swing that’s left the entire NL Wild Card picture in flux. Their path, though, hasn’t been paved with dominant play or superstar surges. Instead, Cincinnati’s resurgence has been a masterclass in persistence, timely wins, and capitalizing on the stumbles of their rivals.
Tuesday evening, September 23, proved a tough pill to swallow for the Reds faithful. While the Mets, Diamondbacks, and Marlins all staged electrifying comeback wins, Cincinnati faltered against Pittsburgh, grounding into double plays to end their final three offensive innings and ultimately falling 4-2. Despite this setback, the Reds remain firmly in the hunt, buoyed by their recent surge and the missteps of the competition.
So, what’s been the secret to Cincinnati’s wild ride? Statistically, the Reds have been, well, average. Since August 29, they’ve posted a .237/.307/.413 batting line, good for a wRC+ of 95—tied for 18th in the majors. Their pitching, too, has been middle of the pack: 20th in pitcher WAR, 15th in ERA-, and a respectable 8th in K-BB%. There’s no magic bullet here, no singular hero driving the charge.
Digging deeper, their performance in high-leverage moments has been less than stellar. The Reds’ high-leverage wRC+ since August 29 sits at 68, ranking 24th in the majors. Their pitchers, on the other hand, have held opponents to a .288 wOBA in these same clutch situations, which is 16th best. Impressively, Reds arms have posted the fourth-best FIP and the third-lowest walk rate (a tidy 3.4%) in high-leverage spots—evidence that, if nothing else, they aren’t giving away games with free passes when the pressure mounts.
Individually, a handful of Reds have stepped up. Spencer Steer has been the most consistent offensive force, batting .286 with five home runs, a 12.5% walk rate, and a 166 wRC+ since late August. Matt McLain, returning from a torn labrum that cost him the 2024 season, has shown flashes of promise—posting a .232 average with four homers and a 116 wRC+, though his 34.6% strikeout rate remains a concern. Sal Stewart (.255, four homers, 122 wRC+) and Elly De La Cruz (.233, two homers, 98 wRC+) have chipped in as well, but there’s been no runaway star.
On the mound, Hunter Greene has dazzled with a 2-0 record, 2.55 ERA, and a 33.7% strikeout rate over 24 2/3 innings. Connor Phillips (3-0, 1.54 ERA, 34.1% K rate) and Tony Santillan (0-1, 0.84 ERA, 26.1% K rate) have also delivered when called upon. Yet, none crack the league’s top 25 in WAR during this stretch, and only Greene sneaks into the top 20 in WPA.
Despite a modest 12-11 record since August 29 and a .500 mark (30-30) since the All-Star Break, the Reds have made their move by beating the teams that matter most. They’re 8-2 against other NL playoff contenders—the Mets, Padres, and Cubs—while just 4-9 against everyone else. It’s not so much that Cincinnati is storming the gates; they’re dragging their competition down, taking advantage of every opportunity when it counts most.
As for the Mets, their own collapse has been nearly as dramatic as Cincinnati’s rise. After holding a 5.5-game lead in the NL East back on June 12, the Mets have gone 17 games under .500, culminating in a disastrous stretch where they’ve lost 11 of their last 15 games. Their most recent home stand ended in disappointment, dropping two out of three to the Nationals—including a heartbreaker in 11 innings and a sloppy 3-2 loss marred by defensive miscues.
The result? As of September 23, the Mets and Reds are deadlocked for the final NL Wild Card spot, with the Mets now heading out on a six-game road trip against the Cubs and Marlins. Their playoff destiny, once firmly in their hands, is now in jeopardy—especially after losing the season series tiebreaker to Cincinnati earlier this month.
"It comes down to winning," said Francisco Lindor after the Nationals series. "We put ourselves in this position, so we gotta find a way to get out of it and that comes down to winning. We gotta win ballgames." Brandon Nimmo echoed the urgency: "We're down to the last week of the season and our playoff hopes are in front of us. We've got to play winning baseball and put it all together."
The Mets’ woes aren’t limited to the standings. Their defense has faltered at the worst possible time, committing five errors in a three-game span, and their pitching rotation is in flux. David Peterson, who has struggled mightily of late, is slated to open the critical series against the Cubs, with the rest of the rotation a day-by-day proposition according to manager Carlos Mendoza. The hope is that the return of center fielder Tyrone Taylor, a defensive stalwart, will provide a much-needed spark as the Mets look to clean up their act in the field.
Meanwhile, the Mets’ offense has leaned heavily on Pete Alonso, whose future with the team is uncertain as he approaches a potential opt-out. Alonso, slashing .274/.350/.526 with 37 home runs and 122 RBI, received a standing ovation in what could be his final home game at Citi Field. "We'll see what happens, but I'm a firm believer that the right thing will happen," Alonso told reporters, leaving his future up in the air as the Mets fight for their postseason lives.
Adding to the intrigue, Juan Soto is on the cusp of joining baseball’s ultra-exclusive 40-40 club, already posting 42 home runs and 35 stolen bases. With six games to go, all eyes are on whether Soto can swipe five more bags to achieve the rare feat, providing a silver lining for Mets fans regardless of the team’s fate.
Looking ahead, the Reds close their season with three home games against the Pirates before heading to Milwaukee to face the Brewers. The Mets, meanwhile, must find their footing on the road, knowing that if they finish tied with Cincinnati, the tiebreaker will send the Reds through. The Diamondbacks, lurking just one game back, are also in the mix, ensuring that every pitch, swing, and managerial decision in the final week could tip the scales.
In a race defined by unexpected twists, the Reds and Mets are living proof that in baseball, it’s not always about outrunning the bear—it’s about outrunning the team next to you. With the finish line in sight, both clubs are scrambling for every advantage, knowing that a single slip could spell the end of their October dreams. The drama, as they say, is far from over.
