Red Bull Racing is facing a significant challenge just two races into the 2025 Formula 1 season. After parting ways with Mexican driver Sergio Perez, the team brought in Kiwi driver Liam Lawson as his replacement. However, Lawson has struggled to find his rhythm, recording a Did Not Finish (DNF) in his debut race at the Australian Grand Prix, followed by a disappointing 16th place finish at the Chinese Grand Prix in Shanghai. Meanwhile, reigning world champion Max Verstappen achieved two podiums and a fourth-place finish in the same car, highlighting the stark difference in performance between the two drivers.
This ongoing dilemma has led Red Bull to consider a drastic measure: swapping Lawson with Japanese driver Yuki Tsunoda from the team’s junior squad Racing Bulls. Tsunoda, who has shown impressive results this season, has expressed interest in moving up, stating, “Yeah, why not. Always,” when asked about replacing Lawson.
As it stands, Red Bull team principal Christian Horner hinted at significant adjustments made to Lawson's car before the Chinese Grand Prix, hoping to improve performance ahead of the next race in Japan. However, the Scotsman’s efforts would prove insufficient, as Lawson remained unable to extract adequate pace from the RB21, ending the qualifying session as the slowest driver.
Lawson’s performance concerns are exacerbated by comparisons to his teammate Sergio Perez, who, despite a difficult previous season, managed better results under similar conditions. Current speculation suggests Tsunoda is set to drive for Red Bull at the Japanese Grand Prix. A meeting took place in Dubai, where Red Bull’s majority shareholder Chalerm Yoovidhya resides, to finalize this decision. These developments were reported by Dutch outlet De Telegraaf, which mentioned that Lawson would be relegated back to Racing Bulls.
Notably, this upcoming seat swap has significant commercial implications as well. Tsunoda’s promotion comes just as Red Bull has noted a 51% increase in market sales in Japan during 2024. Given that Tsunoda will be racing on home turf, Red Bull aims to leverage this opportunity, which could boost visibility in the lucrative Japanese market.
In light of these shifts, Liam Lawson's future remains uncertain. There are ongoing concerns regarding whether he can regain form at Racing Bulls after this demotion. Fellow drivers and fans alike have offered mixed reactions to the impending swap, with one fan remarking, “Red Bull are a joke, make a hasty decision, cover it up with more hasty decision making.” Conversely, another fan highlighted the excitement surrounding Tsunoda’s homecoming, stating, “Could he have dreamed of anything better? I think not!”
Max Verstappen has also weighed in on the situation, remarking on the differences between the Red Bull and Racing Bulls cars. He noted, “That Racing Bulls car is easier to drive than ours,” suggesting that if Tsunoda excels with Red Bull while Lawson struggles at Racing Bulls, it may shift perceptions about Lawson's abilities and the competitiveness of Red Bull's second seat.
Ultimately, this reshuffle within Red Bull signifies the team's desperation to cling to relevance in the Constructors Championship. With the risk of falling dangerously behind competitors like McLaren, Red Bull’s management knows they need to make bold moves. A switch to Tsunoda may be viewed as a last-ditch attempt to save their season, though it could also potentially mark the beginning of a sky-high downfall for Lawson. The current predicament draws parallels to the case of Pierre Gasly, who was demoted to Racing Bulls yet turned his career around by winning a race, but it hasn't led him back to a top-tier seat due to the shadows cast by his earlier misfortunes at Red Bull.
As the Japanese Grand Prix approaches, all eyes will be on the team dynamics between Tsunoda and Verstappen. Their performance will likely dictate Red Bull’s strategy for the remainder of the season, while Lawson’s ability to find success during this critical period with Racing Bulls could determine whether he remains part of Red Bull’s plans going forward or fades into obscurity.
The unpredictability of Formula 1 also adds to the intrigue. If the swap brings immediate results for Red Bull, questions will arise as to why such a move hadn’t been executed earlier. Conversely, if Tsunoda flounders, doubts surrounding the overall competitiveness of the Red Bull car could become pronounced. The unfolding drama not only captivates F1 fans but can also reshape the futures of both drivers involved in this crucial decision.
The question now is whether this internal reshuffle will tilt the scales back in Red Bull's favor or accelerate the uncertainty of their season. As it stands, the team has placed a heavy burden on both Lawson and Tsunoda, and the future remains an open book for Red Bull Racing.
