For anyone who’s ever tried to outsmart the stock market, it might feel a bit like trying to track a great white shark in the wild—elusive, unpredictable, and always one step ahead. But according to a recent analysis published by Barchart.com on October 18, 2025, there’s a method to the madness, and it’s rooted in a surprisingly scientific approach: taxonomy. By borrowing techniques from marine biology and advanced mathematics, market analysts are isolating patterns in stock behaviors the way ecologists study animal migrations, aiming to extract profits by understanding the market’s natural rhythms.
So, what exactly does a ‘taxonomical’ approach mean in the world of trading? The analogy begins with marine ecologists tagging great white sharks to study their behaviors and migration patterns. In much the same way, market experts are now isolating different “species” of market behaviors—what they call sentiment regimes—to predict how stocks are likely to move. The underlying hypothesis is straightforward: just as great whites have different migratory patterns from reef sharks, different market sentiment regimes produce distinct reactions and probabilities.
It might sound a bit far-fetched at first, but as Barchart.com explains, there’s solid science behind it. The method draws on GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) studies, which have shown that volatility in the market doesn’t spread out evenly over time. Instead, it tends to cluster—meaning that today’s volatility is strongly influenced by yesterday’s. This clustering effect means that impactful events in the immediate past matter far more than market-moving events buried deep in history. By tracking these clusters, analysts can identify sentiment regimes that have different probabilistic behaviors than the market’s average.
Why does this matter for traders? Well, if you can determine how each sentiment regime behaves, you can also calculate their exceedance ratios (the profit rate relative to a reference point), terminal median prices, and the density of price outcomes—essentially, where prices tend to cluster. Armed with this knowledge and options pricing data from Barchart Premier, traders can pinpoint which trades make the most sense in the current market climate.
To illustrate this approach, Barchart.com highlighted three specific trading opportunities based on rare quantitative patterns observed in the past 10 weeks or one month: Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Deere (DE), and Zeta Global (ZETA).
First up is Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY). Over the last 10 weeks, BMY’s stock has displayed a rare 2-8-D sequence, meaning it had two up weeks and eight down weeks—a pattern that’s only shown up 4.18% of the time since January 2019. Under normal circumstances, BMY has a neutral to slightly bearish bias, with prices clustering around $43.50. But when this rare sequence appears, the stock tends to trade choppily before rising higher towards the back end of the next 10-week period. According to Barchart.com, “What makes the 2-8-D sequence intriguing is that, under this sentiment regime, BMY would be expected to cluster around $44. On a terminal basis on the ninth week, the median price may rise closer to $45.”
Based on these projections, the article suggests two bull call spreads for BMY, both expiring December 19, 2025. The first is a 44/45 spread, and the second, for those seeking a bit more excitement, is a 44/46 spread. While the expected gains might not sound electrifying at first glance, the forecasted market dynamics give these trades a statistical edge.
The second stock under the microscope is Deere (DE), a stalwart in the industrial sector. Despite being a reliable enterprise, Deere has lagged the broader market this year, gaining just over 8% year-to-date. The stock recently printed a 3-7-D sequence—three up weeks, seven down weeks—a pattern seen only 8.06% of the time since January 2019. Normally, Deere’s stock has an upward bias, with most prices landing between $465 and $470 and clustering around $463. But under the 3-7-D regime, the exceedance ratio jumps above 85%, and prices are expected to cluster around $482.
For traders looking for a quick opportunity, Barchart.com points to the 470/480 bull spread expiring November 21. Those with a longer investment horizon might consider the 470/490 bull spread expiring December 19, though it comes with a hefty net debit of $925. As the analysis notes, “By tracking its unique behavior, we can plot a potentially profitable trading idea.”
Last but not least is Zeta Global (ZETA), a cloud-based marketing tech firm that’s been battered by recent sector volatility. In the past month alone, ZETA’s stock has dropped about 16%. Yet, the company’s stock has exhibited a 6-4-D sequence—six up weeks, four down weeks—a pattern that’s occurred just 6.73% of the time in its history. Despite the recent downturn, ZETA’s longer-term outlook remains bullish, with a 10-week expected exceedance ratio of 65.9% and a median price clustering around $18.80.
Under the rare 6-4-D sentiment regime, this clustering effect is expected to occur with even greater frequency, and the exceedance ratio could climb to 78.6%. The article recommends the 17.50/20 bull spread expiring December 19 as the most sensible play, given that ZETA’s median price under these conditions is expected to break above $20 by the ninth week. For the more aggressive traders, the 20/22.50 bull spread expiring the same day is also highlighted as a potential opportunity.
What ties these diverse trading ideas together is the scientific rigor behind the taxonomical approach. By isolating and studying rare sentiment regimes—much like a biologist tags and tracks a rare animal—traders can identify moments when the odds tilt in their favor. As the analysis from Barchart.com puts it, “If we can determine each sentiment regime’s behavioral tendencies, we can also observe through empirical calculations their exceedance ratios, terminal median price and the density of price outcome.”
Of course, no trading strategy is foolproof, and the article is careful to note that these statistical edges don’t guarantee success. But by combining advanced quantitative analysis with real-world market data, the taxonomical method offers a fresh perspective for traders looking to navigate the unpredictable waters of the stock market. In a world where volatility clusters and rare patterns can spell opportunity, it pays to think like a scientist—and sometimes, like a shark tracker too.
