Saturday night at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, UFC 316 is set to deliver a compelling middleweight clash between Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer. Scheduled for 11:15 p.m. ET, this three-round main card bout features two fighters on very different trajectories, making it a must-watch for fight fans and bettors alike.
Joe Pyfer, the 28-year-old American, has been making waves in the UFC since his debut on Dana White’s Contender Series 47. With a professional record of 13-3, Pyfer has won six of his last seven fights, including an emphatic first-round knockout of Marc-André Barriault at UFC 303 last June. That KO victory was a strong statement after rebounding from a unanimous decision loss to Jack Hermansson in February 2024. Pyfer’s reputation as a powerful striker is well-earned, bolstered by three first-round finishes and three performance bonuses in the UFC. His striking stats are impressive: he lands 3.72 significant strikes per minute with 41% accuracy while absorbing just 10.2 strikes on average per fight in his five UFC wins. Standing 6'2" with a 75-inch reach, Pyfer uses his physical advantages well, combining reach and power to keep opponents at bay.
On the opposite side of the cage is Kelvin Gastelum, a seasoned veteran with a 20-9 professional record. At 33 years old, Gastelum is entering the fight as a sizable underdog, with odds at +310 compared to Pyfer’s -400 favorite status. Gastelum’s recent form has been mixed; he’s 3-6 since 2018 and has struggled to string together consecutive wins. However, his last outing was a unanimous decision victory over Daniel Rodriguez at UFC Riyadh in June 2024, where he showcased his grappling prowess with four takedowns and landed 112 significant strikes. Gastelum is known for his resilience—he has never been finished by strikes in his career—and his southpaw stance adds a layer of complexity for opponents. He stands 5'9" with a 71-inch reach, giving him a four-inch disadvantage compared to Pyfer. Despite this, Gastelum’s significant strikes per minute (3.74) and accuracy (46.66%) are nearly identical to Pyfer’s, highlighting his technical striking skills.
Both fighters bring contrasting styles to the octagon. Pyfer’s orthodox stance and aggressive striking power are balanced by Gastelum’s southpaw technique, experience, and grappling ability. Pyfer averages 1.45 takedowns per fight with a 41% success rate, slightly edging Gastelum’s 1.10 takedowns per fight at 34% accuracy. On submission attempts, Pyfer is more active with a 0.9 average per fight compared to Gastelum’s 0.1, though Gastelum has been submitted three times in his UFC career, all by elite grapplers. This dynamic suggests Gastelum will need to carefully navigate Pyfer’s submission attempts while leveraging his own wrestling to control the pace.
Gastelum’s path to victory likely involves using his veteran savvy to avoid Pyfer’s powerful strikes and capitalize on takedown opportunities. His movement and speed could frustrate Pyfer, who has shown signs of slowing down in longer fights. In his loss to Hermansson, Pyfer’s striking accuracy declined round by round, dropping from 41% in the first to 30% by the third round. This raises questions about his stamina and whether Gastelum can extend the fight beyond the early rounds.
Pyfer, meanwhile, will look to assert dominance early, using his reach and power to keep Gastelum at a distance and land significant strikes. His previous first-round finishes indicate he has the ability to end fights quickly, but experts predict this bout could go the distance. The odds for the fight to last all three rounds are nearly even at -105, reflecting the expectation of a competitive, tactical battle.
The fight was originally scheduled for March 2025 at UFC Mexico City but was postponed due to Pyfer falling ill just hours before the event. This delay adds an extra layer of anticipation, as both fighters have had extended layoffs—Gastelum with only one octagon appearance in the past 18 months and Pyfer coming off his longest career break.
Betting markets reflect the contrasting fortunes of the fighters. Pyfer is favored at -400, while Gastelum is the +310 underdog. The over/under for total rounds is set at 2.5, with the over favored at -135, signaling expectations that the fight will not end early. Experts recommend value bets on Pyfer winning by decision or technical decision at +150, and the fight going over 2.5 rounds, suggesting a strategic, drawn-out contest rather than a quick finish.
Gastelum’s durability and experience, combined with his ability to absorb punishment and control the octagon, make him a tough opponent despite the odds. Pyfer’s youth, power, and reach advantage give him a clear edge, but the fight’s outcome could hinge on whether Gastelum can effectively use his grappling and movement to neutralize Pyfer’s striking.
As the fighters prepare to face off at UFC 316, fans can expect a thrilling middleweight bout that tests Pyfer’s rising star power against Gastelum’s seasoned resilience. With both men bringing nearly identical striking stats but differing in experience and fight style, this fight promises to be a fascinating chess match inside the cage.
For those tuning in at 11:15 p.m. ET on ESPN+, the Prudential Center will be the stage for what could be a pivotal moment in both fighters’ careers. Will Pyfer continue his ascent with another dominant performance, or will Gastelum’s veteran savvy secure a hard-fought decision? The action is set to unfold, and the fight world will be watching closely.
