Reflecting on the tumultuous events of 2024 during his annual end-of-year press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin characterized the past year as "landmark" for achieving the "goals" of Russia's war against Ukraine. Amidst his statements, he claimed significant advancements by Russian forces, including the capture of 189 settlements and reported strength increases with the Armed Forces now boasting 1.5 million personnel. The Russian president proclaimed, "over 1,000 volunteers are signing military contracts every day," hinting at what he framed as resounding military engagement, though analysts suggest these accomplishments have done little to bolster Moscow’s position against Kyiv.
This assertion of newfound strength came at the close of another year characterized by fierce fighting and entrenched stalemates. While Russia has firmly occupied extensive regions within Ukraine, it has failed to achieve substantial territorial gains throughout 2024, leading analysts to question the efficacy of its military strategy. The Ukrainian forces, on their part, have held their positions vigorously, with some success owing to significant incursions, such as their operations launched against the Russian Kursk region since August.
The assault on Kursk marks one of Ukraine's most noteworthy military maneuvers since World War II, resulting in the recapture of numerous settlements and the disruption of Russian supply lines. Despite these gains, the Ukrainian army reported controlling merely 800 square kilometers out of the initial 1,400 previously claimed, indicating the severity of combatants’ casualties on both sides.
To counterattack, Moscow has deployed thousands of North Korean troops to Kursk as part of its efforts to recover lost territories, which raises concerns about the high casualty rates, with the White House estimating 1,000 casualties among North Korean forces within just one week. "Over 3,000 North Korean personnel have been killed or wounded" during their deployment, stated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Both nations are ramping up the intensity of their aerial offensives, which featured the U.S. granting Ukraine permission to deploy ATACMS long-range missiles. This strategic update saw the Russian launch of the Oreshnik, its nuclear-capable ballistic missile, touted by Putin as retaliation for Ukraine's missile strikes on its soil.
Experts like David Sharp, observing these developments, emphasized, "From a military standpoint, it was clear this was more as a PR show than any genuine escalation" for Russia, indicating skepticism about the effectiveness of such missile launches for changing frontline conditions. No doubt, the conflict remains heavily engaged, particularly in Ukraine’s eastern regions where fierce battles persist.
The Institute for the Study of War detailed Moscow’s recent territorial advancements, marking significant measures not seen since early 2022, yet these advances remain overshadowed by the aggressive Ukrainian defense. The battle for Pokrovsk becomes particularly pertinent as Russian forces close in, which analysts attribute as potentially opening up the pathway to total control over the Donetsk region.
Simultaneously, the ramifications of Russia’s operations have extended beyond immediate skirmishes; Finland’s proactive measures included the seizure of the Russian-owned Eagle S crude oil tanker, suspected of sabotaging undersea cables, prompting investigations due to fears of broader geopolitical repercussions.
Analysts anticipate intensified conflict as the year 2025 approaches. Indeed, the prospect of the January inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump carries potential shifts poised to pave the way for negotiations involving Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington, as Putin indicated openness to dialogue with Trump. Observers have noted, "We are likely to see Moscow try to push Ukraine back as quickly as possible," as the political landscapes evolve.
Equipped with cutting-edge tools, Ukraine’s military innovations, particularly with electronic warfare strategies, have made it increasingly capable of disrupting Russian assaults and operations. Reports have surfaced detailing successful strikes against key Russian staff meetings, illustrating the proactive response from Kyiv amid the intense clashes.
Just as significant, Russia's military strategy shows signs of adaptation as enlistment bonuses soar across various regions. Particularly Samara Oblast has boasted enlistment benefits of up to 3.6 million rubles, underlining the challenges Moscow faces to fill military ranks.
Not surprisingly, 2024 draws closer to its end without resolution as the economic pressures on both states mount. The outcry for support from independent media outlets such as The Moscow Times reveals internal struggles faced within Russia, directly panicking under the oppressive scrutiny of government restraints against free journalism.
While both sides remain stalemated, any semblance of advancement could hinge on international involvement, political maneuvers, and existing military tactics. The upcoming months appear charged with uncertainty, yet the human cost of this continued war remains stark and ever-present, be it from the smoke of the battlefield or from the ripple effects felt across continents.
