As world leaders gather in Moscow for Russia's Victory Day celebrations, much attention is focused on the long-delayed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, a project that symbolizes the deepening ties between Russia and China. Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are set to discuss the pipeline during their meeting this week, which coincides with the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.
According to Bloomberg, the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline was originally scheduled to begin in 2024 but has faced numerous challenges, including construction issues and diplomatic disagreements. The pipeline is crucial for Russia, especially as European nations aim to sever their energy dependence on Moscow by 2027. If completed, the pipeline would enable Russia to export up to 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually to China, providing the latter with cheaper liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
The 3,550-kilometer pipeline is designed to connect Russia's Yamal Peninsula through Mongolia to China. However, in January 2024, Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene noted that Russia and China had not yet agreed on key details, resulting in further delays. Moreover, talks between the two nations reportedly reached a dead end in June 2024 as China sought to impose stringent conditions regarding pricing and supply levels.
Despite these setbacks, the economic strains currently affecting both countries may prompt them to settle their differences and move the project forward. Xi Jinping, who is among 29 world leaders attending the Victory Day parade on May 7, is expected to sign several bilateral agreements aimed at strengthening Chinese-Russian relations.
Victory Day, celebrated in Russia on May 9, has evolved into the country's most significant secular holiday, featuring a massive parade through Red Square. Political analyst Nikolai Petrov remarked that for Putin, this day serves as a demonstration of the broad coalition supporting Russia, particularly amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
This year's festivities, however, are overshadowed by security concerns and disruptions caused by Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Moscow. Reports indicate that these attacks have led to significant delays and cancellations at all four of the capital's airports, stranding hundreds of passengers. Tightened security measures have also resulted in restrictions on cellphone internet service, prompting banks and taxi firms to warn customers about potential disruptions during the holiday.
Putin has referred to Xi as "our main guest" for the Victory Day celebrations, emphasizing the importance of their discussions on both bilateral and global issues. The two leaders have met over 40 times, developing a strong personal relationship that has bolstered their strategic partnership. During Xi's four-day visit, discussions will likely center on trade, Russia's supply of oil and gas to China, and cooperation within BRICS, a bloc of developing economies.
While Xi's visit underscores the close ties between China and Russia, it also highlights the shifting dynamics of international relations. The strengthening of their partnership comes at a time when both leaders face escalating tensions with the West. China has emerged as a top market for Russian oil and gas, which has been instrumental in supporting Moscow's war efforts following Western sanctions.
Amid these developments, the Kremlin has invited leaders from several countries, including Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who will be in Moscow for his first official visit since the invasion of Ukraine. Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico and Serbia's President Aleksandar Vucic have also accepted invitations, reflecting Russia's efforts to showcase its international alliances.
In contrast to past celebrations, which featured prominent Western leaders, this year's guest list underscores the current geopolitical landscape. The Kremlin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the attendance of leaders from various countries demonstrates that Russia has not only allies but also numerous nations that resonate with its ideological vision.
Additionally, the backdrop of Xi's visit is marked by the increasing economic and political pressures faced by both Russia and China. The two nations have sought to bolster their ties in response to U.S. efforts aimed at undermining their relationship. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has openly stated that he aimed to "un-unite" Russia and China, a sentiment echoed by various officials in his administration.
Despite these diplomatic tensions, analysts suggest that the U.S. war on the international trading system has inadvertently strengthened ties between Beijing and Moscow. Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser in Chinese business and economics, noted that the U.S. actions have made it more likely for China to solidify its relationship with Russia.
As Xi prepares for his visit, both leaders are acutely aware of the significance of their partnership in the face of growing global challenges. Richard McGregor from the Lowy Institute indicated that Xi's goal is an "upending of the American-led order," a sentiment that aligns with Putin's aspirations to project Russia's power on the world stage.
However, analysts caution that while the partnership is robust, it is not without its limitations. Areas of potential tension exist, particularly concerning defense cooperation between Russia and North Korea, which could complicate China's interests in the region. Moreover, the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline remains a point of frustration for Russia, as delays hinder its ability to replace lost European gas exports.
As the world watches the unfolding events in Moscow, the outcomes of the discussions between Putin and Xi will likely have significant implications for the future of international relations. The symbolism of the Victory Day celebrations, coupled with the strategic discussions on energy and trade, underscores the evolving landscape of global power dynamics.
In this context, Xi's visit serves not only as a reaffirmation of the China-Russia partnership but also as a reminder of the challenges both nations face as they navigate an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.
