As the world stands on the precipice of a new era in nuclear diplomacy, the stakes have rarely felt higher. On August 25, 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a notable overture, suggesting that Moscow and Washington could forge a new deal on nuclear arms control. Just a day later, at a high-profile summit in Alaska, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that he had discussed the future of nuclear weapons with Putin—stressing not only the need for denuclearization but also, crucially, the inclusion of China in any forthcoming negotiations. The timing of these discussions is hardly coincidental, as the last major nuclear arms control treaty between the two superpowers, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), is set to expire on February 5, 2026.
According to Reuters, Putin’s proposal comes at a moment when Russia, the United States, and China are all engaged in ambitious modernizations of their nuclear arsenals. The numbers are sobering: Russia currently holds about 4,300 stockpiled and deployed nuclear warheads, while the United States maintains roughly 3,700. Together, these two nations account for an astonishing 87% of the world’s total nuclear arsenal, as reported by the Federation of American Scientists. China, meanwhile, has about 600 warheads, making it the third largest nuclear power—a distant but rapidly growing force in the global nuclear equation.
The New START treaty, signed to limit the number of strategic nuclear warheads and the deployment systems (like land- and submarine-based missiles and bombers) that can deliver them, has long served as a stabilizing anchor in U.S.-Russia relations. But its looming expiration has set off alarm bells among diplomats and defense experts alike. The question now is whether the two sides can find common ground, and whether China, whose nuclear ambitions have drawn increasing scrutiny, will agree to join the table.
President Trump, speaking after the Alaska summit, underscored the urgency of the moment. He said, "We’re aiming for denuclearization, and China needs to be part of this conversation." Trump’s insistence on Beijing’s participation reflects a longstanding U.S. objective. For years, American officials have argued that any meaningful arms control regime must include China, given its expanding arsenal and technological advancements. Yet, as the U.S. intelligence community’s Annual Threat Assessment bluntly puts it, "China remains intent on modernizing, diversifying, and expanding its nuclear posture." So far, Beijing has resisted calls to participate in trilateral arms control talks, preferring to keep its arsenal smaller but more agile.
The context for these talks is fraught with mistrust and historical baggage. The United States blames Russia for the collapse of several Cold War-era nuclear agreements, most notably the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. The U.S. formally withdrew from the INF Treaty in 2019, citing what it described as Russian violations—an accusation Moscow has consistently denied. The ABM Treaty was abandoned by the U.S. back in 2002, a move that many Russian officials still view with resentment. As The Straits Times reports, Russia has warned that it would resume nuclear testing if the United States did so first, and has expressed deep concerns about Trump’s so-called "Golden Dome" missile defense shield, which Moscow sees as a potential threat to the strategic balance.
Nuclear tensions have been further inflamed by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Both Putin and Trump have issued stark public warnings about the risk of World War III erupting over the crisis. In 2024, Putin took the extraordinary step of lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike in Russia’s official doctrine. The new policy includes a clause that allows for a nuclear response to conventional attacks on Russian territory—a significant escalation that has not gone unnoticed in Western capitals. Trump, for his part, responded in August 2025 by ordering two U.S. nuclear submarines to be positioned in "the appropriate regions" after former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev made remarks highlighting the risk of war between nuclear-armed adversaries.
Putin has repeatedly warned the West that Moscow is not bluffing when it comes to its readiness to use nuclear weapons if Russia is attacked. These warnings have been echoed in official statements and public pronouncements, fueling anxiety among NATO allies and the broader international community. According to Bill Burns, who served as director of the Central Intelligence Agency in 2022, the United States was so concerned about the possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine that it delivered a direct warning to Putin about the dire consequences of such an action.
Against this backdrop, the prospect of a new arms control deal—let alone one that includes China—seems both urgent and daunting. The three nations are each pursuing their own modernization programs. For Russia and the United States, this means upgrading delivery systems, developing new warhead designs, and investing in advanced missile defense. China, meanwhile, is rapidly building up its stockpile and enhancing its ability to deliver nuclear weapons over long distances. The Federation of American Scientists notes that China’s arsenal, while still much smaller than those of the U.S. or Russia, is growing at an unprecedented rate.
Diplomatic observers say the clock is ticking. Once New START expires, there will be no legally binding limits on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals for the first time in decades. This vacuum could lead to a new arms race, with each side seeking to outdo the other in warheads, missiles, and defensive systems. The specter of renewed nuclear testing, hinted at by both Moscow and Washington, only adds to the sense of peril.
Yet, amid the tension, there are glimmers of hope. Putin’s offer to Trump, made just before their Alaska summit, signals at least a willingness to talk. Trump’s call for China’s involvement—while ambitious—reflects a recognition that the nuclear landscape has fundamentally changed since the days of bilateral U.S.-Russia negotiations. As the U.S. intelligence community’s assessment makes clear, ignoring China’s rise would be a grave mistake.
What happens next will depend on the political will of all three powers. Will they seize the moment to craft a new framework for nuclear stability, or will mistrust and rivalry prevail? The world is watching closely, aware that the decisions made in the coming months could shape the future of global security for generations to come.
As the deadline for New START’s expiration approaches, the urgency for renewed dialogue and concrete agreements grows ever more acute. The possibility of a trilateral arms control deal remains uncertain, but the need for one has never been clearer.
