Trade tensions between the United States and Canada are once again gaining prominence, as recent polling reveals diverging perspectives among Americans on tariffs and the value of Canadian relations. With the potential for significant tariffs on Canadian goods looming, the findings raise eyebrows on both sides of the border.
According to GZERO Media and Abacus Data, Americans continue to hold Canada in high regard, demonstrated by the country's net impression score of +61. This places Canada among the most positively viewed foreign nations, just behind Australia. More than half of those surveyed, 54%, described the U.S.-Canada relationship as akin to "best friends" or "close friends." Despite this, responses varied significantly based on political affiliation and geographic location.
Among Trump supporters, sentiments toward Canada and tariff impositions are more complicated. While 44% of Trump voters view potential tariffs as "good" or "very good" ideas, only 15% of Harris supporters echo this sentiment. The GZERO/Abacus Data survey interviewed 1,500 eligible U.S. voters from January 23 to 24, 2025, highlighting these contrasting views.
The survey indicates heightened approval of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (CUSMA), with around 52% of respondents believing it has been beneficial to the United States. Interestingly, among Trump supporters, the numbers are even higher, with two-thirds expressing favorable views of the agreement. This strong backing aligns with the perception held by many Trump voters—that they are playing catch-up against Canada, which is somehow outperforming the U.S. economically.
Americans have mixed feelings about free trade, oscillated by goodwill toward Canada and suspicions of economic advantage. A substantial portion, 86%, considers Canada as an ally, and 84% think free trade benefits both nations. Yet, 56% believe Canada disproportionately benefits from free trade, indicating frustration and the belief the relationship could be imbalanced.
Compounding these sentiments is the perception of energy independence. Approximately 65% of American respondents believe the U.S. can satisfy its energy needs domestically, particularly among Trump voters, which weakens the rationale for reliance on Canadian energy imports. This perspective may lead to increased support for tariffs, with 47% fearing retaliatory measures from Canada would have negative consequences.
The anticipation of tariffs has led many to speculate about the economic impact of potential trade wars. Nationally, 25% foresee positive effects on cost of living due to tariffs, yet 45% predict adverse impacts. Border state residents exhibit heightened concern, with 31% predicting negative outcomes. These fears are exacerbated by projections of heightened prices for everyday goods.
Regional and partisan divides become especially evident when evaluating perceptions of Canada’s military contributions. While many Americans feel Canada contributes adequately to NATO, opinions differ sharply, with nearly half believing Canada does not meet its defense obligations. Such beliefs might bolster the rationale for punitive tariffs, echoing Trump’s long-standing assertions about allied contributions.
The findings reveal mixed views on Canada’s role as both friend and economic partner, showcasing the duality of America's perspective on its northern neighbor. Interestingly, even as many Americans admire Canada personally, their willingness to impose tariffs reflects underlying concerns about fairness and economic advantage.
While support for tariffs appears more pronounced among Trump voters, Harris voters largely express concern over the economic repercussions of trade barriers. This stands as yet another factor complicates the discussions surrounding U.S.-Canada relations, particularly as the country navigates the potential for up to 25% tariffs on various Canadian goods.
What remains apparent is the shared desire for good relations between the U.S. and Canada, but this is layered with complex emotions about fairness and perceived economic advantage. Canadians might find it beneficial to actively counter misconceptions about trade disparities and work to reveal the mutual dependencies between the two nations, which could pacify rising tensions.
Looking forward, Canadian leaders must continue to engage Americans by emphasizing the shared benefits of open markets and border cooperation. Highlighting Canada’s contributions to collective defense and the intertwined economy could help offset negative sentiments.
While the polling data presents somewhat of a paradox—where Americans acknowledge Canada as both ally and potential economic foe—the focus for future discussions should center on how to align perceptions and priorities for mutual benefit.