The latest barometer from the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) reveals significant shifts in Spain's political arena, with the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) leading over the PP (People’s Party) by 5.3 percentage points. If elections were held today, Pedro Sánchez's PSOE would secure 33.4% of the votes, compared to 28.1% for Alberto Núñez Feijóo's PP. These results were released following the controversy surrounding the omnibus decree, which aimed to combine various social measures and was initially stalled by opposition votes.
The survey was conducted from January 31 to February 6, 2025, capturing public sentiment during politically tumultuous times. The scale of the CIS poll, involving 4,042 interviews, aims to gauge the electorate's mood amid recent legislative dynamics. The findings indicate not only increases for the PSOE but also signal declining fortunes for the PP, which has lost 1.6 points since the previous poll, effectively doubling the distance between the two major parties compared to January.
Interestingly, the poll results contradict private sector surveys which had shown the PP gaining ground. According to CIS head José Félix Tezanos, "Los socialistas ganarían con el 33,4% de los votos por el 28,1% de los papeletas que obtendrían los populares," reflecting the shifting political tides stemming from discontent with the PP's recent actions. This widening gap, now the largest seen during the current legislative period, stems from public perception of the PP's leadership and its recent decisions surrounding the omnibus decree.
Experts indicate the measure, which included pension revaluations and transport aid, received broad support, raising questions about the effectiveness of the opposition's strategies. Voters perceived the opposition's initial rejection and subsequent late support as indicative of weakness. Highlighting this sentiment, Tezanos has faced criticisms for alleged bias favoring socialist policies, raising eyebrows among political pundits who note, "Tezanos se declaró ‘víctima’ de un ‘linchamiento’ por parte de los representantes del PP," as the PP continues to accuse CIS of pro-socialist bias.
Further analysis reveals the rise of Vox, now attracting 13.3% of the potential vote, marking its highest level yet. This increase is important for Santiago Abascal's party, which continues to capitalize on its right-wing platform amid the shifting dynamics of national politics. Conversely, Sumar, though remaining significant, saw minor fluctuations, holding steady at 6.4%, just slightly accelerating the competition with Podemos, which improved to 4.4%.
Despite the leftist coalition’s efforts to broaden its voter base amid rising workers' rights issues, public concern seems more focused on housing, which emerged as the primary issue for 34.1% of respondents, indicating socioeconomic factors could overshadow party allegiance. This concern shines light on how tangible issues influence political preference, and as Tezanos indicated, “There’s more intention to vote for leftist parties than what shows up at the polls.”
While the survey indicates strong backing for Sánchez, favoring him over Feijóo by notable margins, public trust remains tentative, with neither leader securing overall approval ratings above average. This suggests Spain's political scene is characterized by volatility—a common trait fed by economic challenges and factional disputes. Sánchez gained 25.8% among respondents who preferred him as Prime Minister, well above Feijóo's 9.7%.
Moving forward, the April elections remain critically poised, as the electorate seems divided yet responsive to key legislative events. Analysts opine the PSOE's political capital hinges on effectively managing public expectations from past promises and newly proposed reforms. With the past overseeing these upcoming decisions, the outcomes could redefine the future political framework of Spain.
Spanish citizens engaging with these polls are inherently calling their leaders to action, indicating they are not just passive receptors of political discourse but active participants seeking substantial policy changes. The February barometer serves as both a checkpoint and predictor of potential paths forward, underscoring the importance of responsive governance.