The political scene in Romania is currently undergoing seismic shifts, especially following the surprising rise of Călin Georgescu, who has emerged as the frontrunner in the first-round presidential elections. This unusual ascent marks not just a personal victory for Georgescu but also signals potential changes for Romania’s orientation toward the East and the West.
After the first round on November 24, Georgescu, previously underestimated by political analysts, surged to first place with approximately 22.94% of the vote. He managed to supplant major figures from long-established political parties like Marcel Ciolacu’s Social Democrats (PSD) and Nicolae Ciucă’s National Liberals (PNL), who could only secure third and fifth places, respectively. Georgescu is set to face pro-European candidate Elena Lasconi from the Save Romania Union (USR) on December 8, which is shaping up to be a pivotal runoff.
Experts are analyzing Georgescu’s candidacy through the lens of regional politics. His campaign has drawn comparisons to notable pro-Russian figures within Central and Eastern Europe, like Hungary's Viktor Orbán and Slovakia's Robert Fico, particularly due to his express admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his criticism of Western policies, particularly those involving Ukraine.
Georgescu’s political strategy has managed to resonate with discontented voters, particularly the youth. His campaign has been characterized by anti-Western rhetoric and populist appeals, promising radical changes amid widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo. His ability to tap social media effectively, especially TikTok, has allowed him to reach younger demographics where traditional political messaging often fails.
Notably, Georgescu’s rise has sparked significant protests across Romania against his far-right politics. Following his ascendancy, demonstrations occurred not only in the capital, Bucharest, but also spread to other regions including Timisoara, Iasi, Brasov, and Sibiu on November 26. Young protestors expressed concerns over what they perceive as threats to democracy, stemming from Georgescu's connections to extremist ideologies, including ties to Russia and far-right organizations.
One protestor captured the sentiment of many when they spoke about the dangers of returning to undemocratic practices, recalling past traumas of autocratic governance. Statements asserting, "I cannot accept... being led by a fascist," highlight the anxieties surrounding Georgescu’s political stance.
His support, which predominantly came from younger voters, especially those aged 18-24, reflects these growing fears. While Georgescu saw vast support among younger voters, more educated voters, including university graduates, largely rejected him. This disparity shows the complicated dynamics at play where the youth are drawn to his nationalistic messages, potentially due to their dissatisfaction with the current political climate.
Lasconi’s campaign, contrastingly, has focused on articulately addressing key issues rather than resorting to inflammatory rhetoric. She gained prominence through visible campaigning and effective engagement, earning endorsements from former influential political leaders, which enhanced her credibility.
The stakes are particularly high for Romania. A Georgescu presidency could derail Romania’s progressive reforms and its commitment to the European Union. The country's position as the largest net recipient of EU funds—over 83 billion euros earmarked from the 2021–2027 budget—makes the political leanings of its leadership critically important. Predictions loom over the potential cessation or alteration of these financial flows should Georgescu, perceived as anti-EU and pro-Russian, take the presidency.
Yet, the pro-European camp is not without hope. Despite facing significant headwinds, pro-EU candidates collectively received 58% of the votes during the first round, indicating substantial public support for maintaining Romania’s European ties. Efforts to align parties against Georgescu could potentially unify the pro-EU voice, thereby ensuring Romania’s continued path toward Western integration.
The next days leading to the runoff represent not just a battle for the presidency but also signify Romania's struggle with its identity and future direction. The choice facing Romanian voters is stark: they have to decide whether to embrace Georgescu's populist offers or to rally behind Lasconi's European-focused vision for the country.
This political moment encapsulates the broader tensions within European societies grappling with euroscepticism, nationalism, and populism. Across Eastern Europe, similar patterns are shaking traditional political structures, raising significant questions around democratic norms and the integrations between Eastern and Western influences.
With parliamentary elections also on the horizon, scheduled for December 1, the response to this political moment will not only shape Romania's governance but may also impact European configurations at large. The potential for change rooted deeply within dissatisfaction, anger at the political elite, and calls for national trust are leading forces as Romania stands on the cusp of change.
