J. Ann Selzer, the prominent Iowa pollster renowned for her insights and analyses, has announced her decision to retire from election polling. This choice follows the release of her recent poll, which signaled Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump just days before the election. The unexpected results, which were significantly misaligned with the final election outcomes, marked the end of an illustrious chapter for Selzer, who has been integral to the polling industry for over three decades.
Selzer’s last poll conducted for the Des Moines Register indicated Harris leading Trump by three percentage points, which raised eyebrows across the political spectrum. This result stood out starkly against the broader array of polling data, which consistently showed Trump with a comfortable lead. When the ballots were counted, Trump secured Iowa decisively, winning the state by 13 points at 56% to Harris's 43%.
Reflecting on the outcome, Selzer openly acknowledged her poll was a “big miss.” She explained, "It’s ironic to make this announcement after my last poll reported such discrepancies with Election Day outcomes." Her tweet suggested the situation might have inadvertently rallied Republican voters, who may have assumed their victory was assured prior to the election.
Not only was Harris’s projected lead unexpected, but it also stirred excitement among Democrats, who saw it as a potential sign of momentum just before the election. This created what some analysts described as buzz around Harris’s candidacy, heightening expectations across the party. Such fluctuations were particularly sensitive as Iowa has historically been the starting gate for presidential hopefuls seeking their party’s nomination.
Despite having earned acclaim throughout her career, including consistent top performances on Nate Silver’s ratings of pollsters, Selzer found herself sidelined by the controversy surrounding her final poll. Critics, especially from the right, quickly highlighted the disparity between her predicted outcome and the actual election results, pointing to it as evidence of polling inaccuracies for which she, as the esteemed pollster, bears the blame.
Kristin Roberts, Gannett Media’s chief content officer, underscored the need for the Iowa Poll to adapt and find innovative methods for gauging public sentiment. She emphasized the commitment to provide accurate and credible polling data moving forward, indicating this transitional phase is necessary to meet the shifting dynamics of political polling.
Selzer’s polling career spans back to 1987 when she began her work with the Iowa Poll as part of the Des Moines Register team. Notably, she built her own independent firm, Selzer & Co., and continued to shape the Iowa Poll on contract starting from 1997. Throughout her tenure, she played pivotal roles for various esteemed organizations including the Detroit Free Press and Bloomberg News.
Her polling has been marked by high-profile forecasts, including predictions surrounding Barack Obama’s rise during the Iowa Democratic caucuses and Trump’s commanding lead against Biden during the 2020 election. These landmark predictions reaffirmed her reputation as "the outlier queen" of the polling industry, recognized for her ability to offer unique insights often glossed over by others.
Selzer mentioned she first took on polling as part of her academic pursuits, explaining how her initial curiosity about gathering data as early as her college years evolved over time. She stated she always sought to help clients illuminate unknowns valuable for their strategic decisions. This knack for digging beneath the surface of polling data contributed to her success and esteem among Democratic and Republican clients alike.
With her retirement from election polling, Selzer doesn’t plan to disappear from the industry entirely. She foresees continuing to partner with existing clients and possibly exploring new opportunities for polling and analysis as she transitions to different ventures. Maintaining her integrity and commitment to accuracy remains central to her professional ethos, especially after having faced scrutiny over the latest poll.
Selzer said, "My integrity means everything to me. I appreciate the supportive messages I’ve received from colleagues and clients who have shared this commitment to truth and accuracy." For now, as she prepares to step back from the high stakes of election cycles, she leaves behind not just polling data but also considerable reputational footprints on Iowa politics and the broader national narrative.
The Des Moines Register has actively acknowledged and respected Selzer’s contributions, promising to continue searching for effective approaches to connect with the public sentiment of Iowans as the polling mechanisms evolve. Overall, Selzer's announcement feels bittersweet—highlighting both the milestones achieved during her brilliant career and the prevailing challenges present within the polling industry today.
