The growth of private equity and credit markets is set to continue dramatically through 2025, driven by increasing demand from institutional investors and favorable regulatory changes particularly within the United States and Japan.
According to the "United States Private Equity Market, By Region, Competition, Forecast and Opportunities, 2020-2030F" report, the U.S. private equity market was valued at USD 475.08 billion in 2024 and is well on track to reach USD 860.39 billion by 2030. This envisages a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.46%, underscoring the sector's resilience and appeal amid modern economic uncertainties.
Private equity has emerged as one of the fastest-growing investment sectors. Businesses are increasingly favoring venture capital and buy-out funding options as mechanisms for organizational financing. A substantial driver of this momentum is the growing allocation of capital from institutional investors such as pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, and university endowments.
These institutional investors turn to private equity primarily due to its potential for higher returns compared to more traditional asset classes like public equities and bonds. They appreciate private equity's long-term investment horizon, which aligns with their goals of ensuring steady, risk-adjusted returns over extended periods. Encouraged by favorable market conditions, the increased appetite among these investors is resulting in significant growth within the U.S. private equity arena.
Another major trend shaping the current market dynamics is the focus on technology and innovation. Many private equity firms are now emphasizing investments within tech-driven sectors such as fintech, artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, and biotechnology. With the rapid evolution of technology, these areas represent burgeoning opportunities ready for substantial returns.
Meanwhile, across the Pacific, Japan is garnering renewed interest from Western private equity firms after years of dormancy. Historically, Japan attracted significant investments from alternative asset managers until the Great Financial Crisis saw investors pivoting to markets perceived as less encumbered by regulatory barriers, such as China and South Korea. Now, with bold initiatives taken by the Japanese government to entice foreign investment, interest has once again surged.
To welcome Western private equity firms back, Japan has introduced several sweeping regulatory initiatives. The implementation of the Corporate Governance Code, first introduced in 2015 and revised through subsequent years, sought to improve transparency, accountability, and decision-making within Japanese companies. This alignment with international standards aims to make Japanese companies more attractive to foreign investors.
According to industry observers, the efforts have yielded impressive results. The Japanese Private Equity Association noted substantial growth between 2020 and 2023, where private equity transactions climbed from 96 transactions valued at 1.2 trillion yen to 125 transactions valued at 5.9 trillion yen.
FinCity Tokyo, established as a public-private collaboration aimed at enhancing Tokyo’s status as Asia’s premier global financial hub, plays a pivotal role by helping investors navigate the refined regulatory environment. This organization has effectively facilitated the entry of nine significant global firms, collectively managing nearly $1.3 trillion, since 2022.
David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, emphasized the potential for growth, asserting, "There will be good secular growth in private credit, and the bank is well placed to take advantage." His comments reflect Goldman Sachs' strong position within the private credit ecosystem, especially as the bank continues to manage over USD 140 billion for clients.
Alongside Goldman Sachs, notable players like Blackstone, Carlyle, and KKR are pushing harder to tap high-net-worth (HNW) and ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) investors. Blackstone, for example, raised USD 28 billion through its wealth management arm in 2024, showcasing the power of alternative investments and the surge of demand for such services.
With net income for Blackstone hitting USD 5.437 billion—a remarkable leap from USD 2.444 billion the previous year—the firm is emphasizing its commitment to capturing the extensive $85 trillion private wealth market.
Despite the high interest rates and economic disruptions post-pandemic, projections suggest improved private equity fundraising and exit opportunities, with IPOs anticipated to become significant exit routes for privately held firms.
Goldman Sachs' Solomon also hinted at expected recovery within capital markets, predicting, "Capital markets activity will meaningfully improve in 2025," facilitated by regulatory changes and renewed confidence following recent appointments within necessary regulatory bodies.
This optimistic viewpoint signals growth across both private equity and private credit alike. The overarching theme is clear: as the economic conditions continue to stabilize, and with strong institutional interest driving capital allocation, the stage is set for private equity and credit markets to expand significantly. Firms operating within this sphere must be ready to adapt and innovate to secure their slice of this lucrative pie.
Looking ahead, 2025 may very well mark a defining moment for private equity, as it not only rebounds following recent challenges but also evolves to meet the changing demands of investors and the broader economic environment.