KYIV — Amidst the backdrop of continued military aggression, discussions concerning potential peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have emerged as both urgent and complex. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has voiced concerns over Ukraine’s hopes of joining NATO being leveraged as part of negotiations to end the conflict, particularly as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump seeks to shift the dynamics of the war through diplomacy.
During a recent interview with The Yomiuri Shimbun, Kuleba articulated his fears, stating, "Some decision-makers see Ukraine’s membership in NATO as a bargaining chip with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin." This assertion reflects apprehension about the approach of international leaders who may view NATO membership as negotiable amid the push to bring Russia to the table. Kuleba believes strongly in the necessity of NATO membership as not just pivotal for peace talks, but as the primary method to deter future conflicts: "There is no more effective instrument to prevent the next war than having Ukraine in NATO."
The urgency of the situation is amplified by the insights of Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office. Speaking on December 17, Yermak emphasized, "Real negotiations for a lasting peace will begin only when the enemy no longer has the resources to continue the war." His remarks underline the perspective within Ukraine's leadership: any talk of peace can only materialize when Russia is sufficiently weakened, and not simply paused. Yermak cautioned against concessions toward Russia, claiming it would only serve to allow Moscow to rebuild its military capabilities for future offensives.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has also weighed in on the situation, particularly criticizing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban for negotiating with Moscow on peace discussions without having the necessary leverage. Zelensky quipped, "How will he put pressure on Putin? With a joke, a smile? Let him keep it," reflecting frustration at what he sees as ineffective diplomatic efforts lacking substance.
This sentiment is echoed by other European allies who are divided over the terms of negotiations with Russia. Slovak President Peter Pellegrini recently suggested accepting partial territorial losses as necessary for peace. These views, which would see Ukraine potentially ceding land, have sparked criticism from other allies, including Poland, where Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski argues for more pressure to be directed at Russia, not Ukraine.
While internal discussions continue, the role of external influences has not gone unnoticed. Kuleba noted China's possible position as a mediator, mentioning his previous meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Kuleba stated, "I left this meeting with the clear impression China wants this war to end but aims to bolster its own global standing by being perceived as the broker of peace." This complex geopolitical maneuvering highlights the potential for major powers to shape the narrative around the conflict, with varying interests at stake.
Japan has also been mentioned positively by Kuleba for its significant role, particularly as it considers relaxing arms export restrictions to provide support to Ukraine. "Japan has played a very important role in this war, and we appreciate it," Kuleba said, emphasizing needs for enhanced collaboration among allies against the overarching threat posed by Russia.
Reflecting on the situation as it stands, Ukraine finds itself under immense pressure to initiate some form of negotiation with Russia, but fears compromising positions could lead to detrimental long-term repercussions. Yermak warns, "If Russia is not forced to make a just peace, there will be no peace; there will be merely the absence of war — which could turn volatile at any moment." Kuleba’s insistence on the importance of NATO membership underlines the deep-seated need for security guarantees to prevail.
Given the backdrop of violence and the high stakes involved, Kyiv must navigate its foreign relations smartly, balancing calls for peace and the necessity of remaining sturdy against aggression. The path forward remains uncertain, but both Kuleba and Yermak echo the sentiment: peace is only possible when Ukraine stands strong enough to secure the terms it deems preferable. Until then, negotiations remain fraught with risks and dilemmas.
