The 2025 Polish presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable contests yet, especially with the latest polls indicating surprising candidates for the potential second round which takes place later this year on May 18.
Current polling from SW Research has placed Warsaw’s Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski firmly at the top, securing 33.6% of voter support, though it’s the dramatic rise of Sławomir Mentzen, the candidate from the Konfederacja party, which has grabbed headlines. With 18.9% support, Mentzen has overtaken Karol Nawrocki of the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS), who now sits at 16.5% according to the latest survey.
This polling reflects not just fluctuated voter preferences, but also broader societal sentiments as awareness of each candidate increases. The startling changes have prompted reactions from various political figures. "Gdyby wybory prezydenckie odbyły się dziś, na kogo oddałbyś swój głos?" (If the presidential elections were held today, who would you vote for?) was the central question posed to survey takers, illustrating just how fluid the political environment has become.
Trzaskowski, as cited at 33.6%, has seen only slight growth from the last month (an increase of 0.7 percentage points). His position seems steady due to his established recognition; he enjoys significant backing from key demographics, including women (35.8%) and individuals over 50 years old (46.1%). Much of his base appears to reside within large urban areas, positioning him as the candidate of continuity and stability.
Mentzen's rise is particularly notable, as he has climbed up 5.8 points, earning attention through his strong social media presence and active engagement on these platforms. Insights from political analysts suggest this may stem from younger voters’ increasing willingness to engage with his candidacy, particularly those under 24 years of age, where his support has jumped to 36.7%. The contrasting support paints Mentzen as appealing to younger demographics, particularly those from smaller towns.
Karol Nawrocki’s position remains uncertain. Having lost ground (down 0.5 percentage points), his campaign is now under scrutiny. Some supporters, including PiS MP Michał Moskal, quickly responded to these shifts, showcasing historical graphics from 2015 as parallels to suggest caution, leaning on the unpredictable nature of elections.
Rafał Trzaskowski, speaking at a recent press conference, reassured reporters, stating, "Jestem gotowy na każdego kontrkandydata..." (I am ready for any opponent), expressing confidence about facing any challenger as the election date nears. His steady approach notwithstanding, the ramifications of strong opposition must be acknowledged, with rising figures like Mentzen affecting available pathways for others.
Despite Trzaskowski and Mentzen leading the charge, observers should not dismiss other candidates. Szymon Hołownia has also shown stable support, currently standing at 7.9%, leaving room for growth among the undecided voters who make up around 10% of the electorate. Overall, Grzegorz Braun, Krzysztof Stanowski, and Adrian Zandberg hold minimal but notable positions, creating potential for later influence should the candidate dynamics shift again.
An expert commentary provided by Daniel Pers highlighted concerns about polling reliability, remarking, "To nie jest sondaż" (This is not a poll), emphasizing the methodology of SW Research and declaring the dynamics of the internet-based survey may not fully represent the broader population dynamics, especially among older voters who may not be as engaged online.
Additional reflections on demographic support reveal contrasts: students and young professionals prominently supporting Mentzen, whereas Nawrocki retains strong backing particularly from older voters and those residing primarily within larger urban landscapes. The tactics being employed by each candidate to bolster their rankings through various means, particularly social media influence, could markedly shape the limelight during the lead-up to the election.
With only months to go, the contest for candidacy grows more palpable. Political analysts and commentators suggest all eyes will be new polling outcomes indicating if rapid shifts are consolidatory or isolated phenomena. Trzaskowski appears likely to wed support from steadfast bases, making it imperative for competing candidates to differentiate themselves clearly to appeal to undecided voters.
The question remains: will Mentzen continue his upward trend, or will Nawrocki redeem his campaign? With the second round looming ever closer, the stage is set for what could be one of the most hotly contested presidential elections Poland has ever seen.