Debris from a USSR spacecraft may fall on the territory of Poland, according to media reports. The Polish Space Agency POLSA has issued a warning that debris from the Soviet spacecraft "Cosmos 482," which is set to uncontrollably enter the Earth's atmosphere, could potentially fall on Polish territory. This alarming news was reported by RMF24.
Agnieszka Gapys, a representative of POLSA, stated that the object may not completely burn up during its descent, and its debris could reach the surface in Poland. The agency is currently monitoring the trajectory of "Cosmos 482" in collaboration with experts from the EU and the United States to predict as accurately as possible where it will enter the atmosphere.
As of now, it is estimated that "Cosmos 482" may enter the atmosphere around 4:00 AM Polish time on May 10, 2025. However, there is a possible error margin of up to 13 hours. The spacecraft is expected to fly over Poland twice that day: first at approximately 6:40 AM, along a trajectory between Jelenia Góra in the southwest and Biała Podlaska in the east, and then again around 8:11 AM between Zielona Góra and Lublin, at which time it may be visible.
Originally launched in 1972 to explore Venus, "Cosmos 482" failed to achieve its intended orbit and has remained in space for over fifty years. Due to a malfunction, it is now on a collision course with Earth.
This isn't the first time POLSA has faced scrutiny. In February 2025, the agency was criticized after debris from a SpaceX rocket fell in Poland, as government departments did not receive timely notifications about the incident. The then-head of the agency was subsequently dismissed.
Experts are particularly concerned about the capsule of "Cosmos 482," which weighs around 495 kilograms. It was designed to withstand the harsh conditions of Venus's atmosphere, and experts from NASA believe it may partially or fully survive re-entry into Earth's atmosphere.
The expected descent speed of "Cosmos 482" could reach 242 kilometers per hour, creating a potential risk for populated areas. The capsule's potential landing zone covers a wide belt between 52 degrees north and south latitude, including parts of the UK, central Canada, most of the United States, Europe—including Poland—and southern regions of South America.
Despite the risks, experts assess the danger to the public as extremely low, comparable to the risk posed by falling meteors, which occur several times a year. However, the possibility of debris landing in populated areas cannot be entirely ruled out.
"Cosmos 482" was part of the Soviet space program aimed at studying Venus. After failing to transition to an interplanetary trajectory, the spacecraft split into four parts, with two burning up in the atmosphere shortly after separation. The remaining two parts, the capsule and the engine, are now on a descending trajectory.
The European Union Space Surveillance and Tracking (EUSST) program has long included "Cosmos 482" in its list of monitored objects in Earth's orbit. The spacecraft remained in orbit for decades due to its high mass and small surface area, which slowed its descent through the atmosphere.
In the wake of this impending re-entry, international space agencies are closely monitoring the situation. European observers are analyzing all available information, including declassified documents from Roscosmos, the Russian space agency, to better understand the spacecraft's structure and trajectory.
Photographs taken in 2011 led experts to believe that the structure of "Cosmos 482" is more complex than previously assumed. Attempts to distinguish the spacecraft and ascertain what remains of it are likened to examining wreckage from a ship disaster, as it travels at high speeds hundreds of kilometers above the Earth.
The European Space Agency (ESA) has added the return of "Cosmos 482" to its list of potentially dangerous objects under its Space Situational Awareness program. Meanwhile, British company Seradata, which tracks space objects, has also included the spacecraft in its SpaceTrak database as requiring continuous monitoring in the coming weeks.
As the date of re-entry approaches, the world watches with bated breath. The return of "Cosmos 482" serves as a reminder of the remnants of the Cold War era and the ongoing challenges of space debris management. With experts working diligently to predict the spacecraft's path, the hope is that the risks can be mitigated, ensuring safety for those on the ground.