Pope Francis is currently grappling with significant health challenges, causing widespread concern among the Catholic community and beyond. The 88-year-old pontiff has been hospitalized since February 14, 2025, due to complications from double pneumonia. This health crisis escalated over the weekend when the pope experienced severe respiratory distress, which necessitated oxygen administration and blood transfusions. Reports from the Vatican indicate he is still ‘not out of danger’ and remains critically ill.
The recent medical updates have sparked fears of what might happen if Pope Francis were to resign or pass away. The legal framework surrounding resignation is somewhat vague; canons do not detail who must be informed or how the delegation should occur. Historically, the resignation of Pope Benedict XVI on February 28, 2013, marked the first voluntary abdication since 1294, shedding light on processes yet to be followed.
According to canon law, the College of Cardinals must be informed about any resignation, as they are responsible for ensuring the validity of such decisions. Should the papacy become vacant due to death or resignation, the Church enters what is termed 'sede vacante'—a period where the Cardinals govern until the selection of the new pope.
During the 'sede vacante' period, numerous procedural steps are followed. Initially, the camerlengo certifies the pope's death and reports it to the cardinals and the public. Following this, nine days of official mourning commence, during which memorial masses are held. This is followed by the conclave, where the eligible cardinals—the cardinals who are under 80 years old—gather secretly to vote for the new pope.
The balloting process is conducted daily, with candidates requiring a two-thirds majority to be elected. Each day's voting culminates with the burning of ballots; if no pope is chosen, black smoke signals this to the outside world. Conversely, white smoke appears when the cardinals conclude their deliberation with the selection of their new leader.
After the election, the newly elected pope chooses his papal name and then presents himself to the public from the balcony of St. Peter's Basilica, where the phrase 'Habemus Papam' is proclaimed.
Given the somber health of Pope Francis and speculation around his potential resignation, some experts have begun drawing parallels with Nostradamus's prophecies about the emergence of a ‘Black Pope’—a term attributed to the election of a pope of African descent or to the superior general of the Jesuits. African cardinals have become increasingly prominent within the Vatican, and the prospect of such a leadership shift has begun to generate buzz around both historical interpretation and contemporary realities.
Public speculation surrounding Pope Francis's health has also sparked rumor mills fueled by misinformation, including exaggerated claims about his condition and even suggestions of impending death. Such narratives circulate especially among certain conservative factions within the Church who may be positioning themselves for influence should the conclave be summoned. This political jockeying has resulted in coordinated meetings among various factions, enabling them to gain visibility and establish connections among potential electors.
The climate of discussion among cardinals is becoming increasingly important to monitor, especially as there continues to exist factions openly discontent with the direction Pope Francis has taken the Church. His handling of issues such as divorce, LGBTQ rights, and interfaith relations has been met with pushback from conservative clerics.
The Vatican has also been firm in quelling rumors of preparations for the papal funeral, with officials stating there are no such plans currently being operated under the scrutiny of the public eye. Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re has emphasized the need to dispel these narratives, asserting, “Do not invent anything; the Pope is recovering!”
Despite significant health hurdles, the pontiff's spirit remains undeterred; even during his hospitalization, he has been noted to engage with visitors, including Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Within their discussion, he entertained notions surrounding unfounded claims about his health, expressing faith and optimism about his recovery.
While speculation concerning who might emerge as the next pope continues, potential candidates include Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin, known for his diplomatic expertise, and several African cardinals who align with traditionalist views.
The future of the papacy will be influenced not only by the health of Pope Francis but also by the ways the current crises and rumored prophecies impact the Church's leaders and followers. While uncertainty looms over the Vatican, the Catholic community watches anxiously as events develop, hoping for positive outcomes for their pontiff and the Church’s leadership.