Pope Francis, the head of the Catholic Church, passed away on Monday, April 21, 2025, at the age of 88 after 12 years in office. His death marks the beginning of a formal and structured transition within the Church, initiating a nine-day mourning period. Traditionally, the funeral is held between four and six days after the pope's death in Saint Peter's Square at the Vatican. However, Pope Francis had expressed his desire to be buried in the Basilica of Saint Mary Major in Rome instead of the customary burial site in the crypt of Saint Peter's Basilica.
The conclave, a gathering of cardinals tasked with electing a new pope, will soon convene. All cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to participate in the voting process. As of April 21, 2025, there are 252 cardinals in total, with 135 of them under the age of 80, including six from France. A two-thirds majority is required among these voting cardinals to elect the new pope, which can lead to a lengthy deliberation process.
During the voting, if no decision is reached, black smoke will emerge from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel. Conversely, when white smoke signals that a new pope has been elected and has accepted the position, the bells of Saint Peter's Basilica will ring to confirm the news. Since 2005, colored smoke generators have been used to indicate the outcome, ensuring clarity for the faithful gathered in Vatican City.
Upon the announcement of a new pope, he will retire to a small room adjacent to the Sistine Chapel, known as the "chamber of tears," where newly elected popes traditionally reflect on the weight of their new responsibilities. The conclave will conclude with the proclamation of "Habemus Papam" from the central balcony of Saint Peter's Basilica, marking the official start of the new pontificate.
In the wake of Pope Francis's passing, speculation has begun regarding potential successors, commonly referred to as "papabili." Among the names circulating are Pietro Parolin, the current Secretary of State of the Vatican and a close confidant of Pope Francis; Luis Antonio Tagle, the former Archbishop of Manila, who could make history as the first Asian pope; Anders Arborelius, the Archbishop of Stockholm, known for his ecumenical efforts; and Jean-Marc Aveline, the Archbishop of Marseille, who has gained prominence following his close ties with the late pope.
Pietro Parolin, with extensive diplomatic experience and a strong understanding of the Church's internal mechanisms, is viewed as a serious contender. However, some critics argue that he may be too aligned with Pope Francis's modernist approach, particularly in his dealings with China.
Anders Arborelius, the Swedish cardinal, is recognized for his commitment to ecumenism and environmental issues, appealing to both conservative and progressive factions within the Church. He speaks multiple languages and has been involved in the Vatican's economic affairs since 2020, though his geographical distance from Rome may limit his influence.
Meanwhile, Luis Antonio Tagle stands out as a progressive candidate who could extend the legacy of Pope Francis. His focus on social justice and environmental protection aligns with the current pope's priorities, although he has maintained conservative stances on issues such as abortion and euthanasia.
Jean-Marc Aveline, the Archbishop of Marseille, is the closest French figure to the papacy, especially after Pope Francis's visit to Marseille in the summer of 2023. Aveline's advocacy for education, interreligious dialogue, and migration issues resonates with progressive elements within the Church. His background as the founder of the Institute of Science and Theology of Religions further enhances his profile as a candidate.
The conclave is expected to take place within 15 to 20 days following Pope Francis's death, as is customary. Cardinal Dominique Mamberti, who will announce the new pope, highlights the significance of this event. The election process will involve 138 cardinals under 80 years old, with six French cardinals among them, including Aveline, François Bustillo, and Christophe Pierre.
As the Catholic Church prepares for this pivotal moment, the global community watches closely. The election of a new pope not only affects the direction of the Church but also has implications for its 1.3 billion followers worldwide. Observers note that the new pope may share the vision of Pope Francis, who favored a Church focused on service and outreach rather than centralized power.
While the potential candidates bring diverse backgrounds and perspectives, the unpredictability of the conclave means that the outcome remains uncertain. The history of papal elections shows that surprises are always possible, and the next few weeks will be crucial in shaping the future of the Catholic Church.
