Recent polling data from Poland's upcoming presidential election indicates strong support for Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate from the Civic Coalition (KO). A new survey conducted by Opinia24, published by Radio Zet on February 6, 2025, reveals Trzaskowski leading with 32% of voter support. He is followed by Karol Nawrocki, representing the Law and Justice party (PiS), who garnered 24% backing. Sławomir Mentzen of the Confederation claimed 15% of the votes, with Szymon Hołownia, leader of Poland 2050, trailing at 7%.
The polling also explored potential pairings for the second round of elections. If Trzaskowski and Nawrocki were to face-off, the survey projected Trzaskowski would win with 56% of the vote against Nawrocki's 44%. Interestingly, Trzaskowski's strongest opposition seems to be from Mentzen, who, if competing head-to-head, would claim 46%, compared to Trzaskowski's 54%.
Further analysis of the polls indicates Nawrocki could win against Mentzen, mirroring the delicate balance of support among candidates. Nawrocki would achieve 53% against Mentzen's 47% if they were to compete directly. Despite the apparent competitiveness, experts suggest the likelihood of the upcoming election primarily involving Trzaskowski and Nawrocki has risen, with other candidates like Mentzen and Hołownia slowly diminishing.
According to another recent poll conducted by Pollster for Super Express from February 8-10, 2025, Trzaskowski's support sits at 35%, albeit down by two percentage points from the previous poll. Nawrocki, likewise, faced similar setbacks, dropping to 25%. Meanwhile, Mentzen has improved his position, climbing to 16%, indicating his campaign's effectiveness, especially through extensive outreach across smaller towns.
Notably, Szymon Hołownia is reported to have lost support, now landing at 8%, down three percentage points. The overall political climate indicates declining numbers for both main candidates, Trzaskowski and Nawrocki, which has been concerning for their campaigns. Noteworthy is the rise of Krzysztof Stanowski, who, debuting at 5%, shows potential for building sustainable voter appeal.
Political analyst Dr. Bartosz Rydliński commented on the trending support for Mentzen due to proactive campaigning, noting, "Sławomir Mentzen's increasing popularity can be largely attributed to his consistent presence among the electorate," indicating the effectiveness of direct engagement within communities.
On the campaign front, as the election date approaches, candidates are ramping up efforts, with 24 declared contenders as of February 10, 2025. Among these candidates, Sławomir Mentzen (Confederation), Marek Jakubiak (Wolni Republikanie), and others are collecting signatures needed to solidify their candidacy. The official candidate list is set to be finalized by April 5, 2025.
The first round of elections is slated for May 18, 2025, and if necessary, the second round will occur on June 1, 2025. Polling results not only reflect voter intent but hint at how political campaigns are adapting to the shifting dynamics of public opinion.
With all signs pointing toward increased competition, Trzaskowski's campaign continues to focus on solidifying his base and ensuring he can maintain his lead. Voter sentiment, engagement, and trust will be pivotal as the election approaches, shaping the outcomes of what could be one of Poland’s most competitive presidential elections to date.