The latest polling data for the upcoming Polish Presidential Election, scheduled for May 18, 2025, reveals significant changes among leading candidates, with both challenges and opportunities lying ahead for the frontrunners.
According to research conducted by the Pollster Institute for the newspaper Super Express, Rafał Trzaskowski, currently leading the race with 35% support, has experienced a slight drop of 2 percentage points from earlier surveys. Trzaskowski is the candidate from the Civic Coalition (KO), and his main competitor is Karol Nawrocki of the Law and Justice party (PiS), who has also seen his support wane, now at 25% compared to previous polling.
On the rise is Sławomir Mentzen from the Confederation party, whose approval has increased to 16%, marking him as the third most favored candidate. Meanwhile, Szymon Hołownia stands at fourth place with 8%. The survey was conducted from February 8 to 10, 2025, involving responses from 1,077 adults across Poland.
The political climate indicates challenges for Nawrocki, who must bridge the gap between his support and the expectations of PiS party voters. According to political scientist Dr. Bartosz Rydliński from UKSW, "Sondaż pokazuje, że Karol Nawrocki wciąż mierzy się z wyzwaniem zdobycia pełnego zaufania wyborców PiS. Jego poparcie jest trwale niższe aniżeli wyniki partii Jarosława Kaczyńskiego," indicating deep-rooted loyalty among the party base.
Looking at the data from another poll by Opinia24 published on February 6, Trzaskowski again topped the chart with 32% support, followed by Nawrocki at 24%, and Mentzen at 15%. With the polls indicating whom voters prefer, Trzaskowski leads significantly against his opponents. He would secure 56% against Nawrocki, 54% against Mentzen, and has overwhelming support of 65% against Hołownia.
Interestingly, if Mentzen and Trzaskowski face off, the outcome remains close, with Trzaskowski receiving 54% and Mentzen capturing 46%. Mentzen's support appears to be partially driven by younger voters and those aged 40-49, as he captures higher percentages among these demographics.
This data surely raises questions as to how candidates will adjust their strategies as they move closer to the election. Nawrocki is promising voters new initiatives like reducing VAT and opposing the European Union's migration pact, which may sway undecided voters.
Everyone is now waiting to see how these dynamics shift as the election dates draw closer. The stakes are high, and the ability of each candidate to resonate with various voter segments will be key to success.
Analyzing age and gender preferences reveals more layers to this race. Trzaskowski garners much higher support from women (63%) than Nawrocki, whose gender demographics are more balanced, highlighting the challenges each candidate faces as they approach this election.
Polling indicates Trzaskowski is particularly strong among older voters, receiving up to 82% of the vote from those aged 60 and over, showcasing the potential demographic divides. Meanwhile, Mentzen enjoys increasing popularity among younger voters, particularly those aged 18-39.
To wrap up, the Polish Presidential election's polling period remains dynamic. With candidates like Trzaskowski and Nawrocki leading but facing strong competition from Mentzen and Hołownia, it's evident this election season will be filled with surprises. Voter engagement and strategic campaigning will determine the next phase of this race.