Recent polling data for the upcoming German Federal Election, scheduled for February 23, 2025, reveals significant shifts among the country's political parties. The CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, has gained popularity, now standing at 31%, up one percentage point from previous surveys. This increase is noteworthy as the party seeks to solidify its position leading up to the election.
According to the latest survey conducted by infratest dimap for the ARD, the AfD has also seen gains, now polling at 21%, which marks an increase of one point. Meanwhile, the SPD remains stagnant at 15%, and the Greens have slipped to 14%, losing one point. Other parties, including the Left and minor party candidates, are showing minimal to no positive movement, with the Left remaining at 5% and minor parties at 4% each.
The polling, conducted from February 3 to February 5, 2025, involved 1,302 eligible voters through both online and telephone interviews. On February 6, ARD reported the results, highlighting the current political climate and voter sentiment just weeks before the federal election.
The political maneuvering surrounding asylum policy has played a pivotal role. Friedrich Merz, who recently engaged with the AfD during parliamentary votes on migration matters, did not appear to suffer backlash from the electorate, as initially feared. The CDU's recent debate on immigration has bolstered their support, with many voters aligning with their perspectives as shown by Merz gaining four percentage points on the voter satisfaction scale.
BILD reported, "The Union lays one point and reaches 31 percent," indicating a measured increase amid contentious political discourse, including the rejection of asylum policies by the SPD and Greens. Merz's controversial decision to work alongside the AfD has elicited varied reactions among voters.
Despite the controversies surrounding his approach, polls suggest Merz's actions are more accepted than not. The same survey showed 36% of participants support the idea of a CDU-led government, up from the last polling period, indicating the electorate's shifting attitudes.
While the CDU and AfD gain momentum, the SPD's position continues to dwindle. Olaf Scholz's party remains stagnant at 15%. With recent criticisms and the failure to capitalize on the current shifts, their chances appear slim as they head toward the election. Scholz has noted, "The SPD remains at 15 percent" as it struggles to recover lost ground.
Conversely, the Green Party, which has seen declines recently, is facing challenges from within. They now stand at 14%, and voter dissatisfaction is growing. The overall political scene reflects turmoil, marked by protests against immigration policies, which have stirred public sentiment. Demonstrations across Germany indicate strong public discord over the current government's handling of migration issues.
Friedrich Merz's growing popularity, now at 33% for preferred Chancellor, marks another milestone for the CDU. This increase positions him favorably against other candidates, including Olaf Scholz, who has improved to 25% from the previous survey, and Robert Habeck, who now sees 26% support. Despite the criticisms, Merz's strategy appears to resonate with many who are concerned about immigration issues.
The polls also reflect division among voters concerning the CDU's collaboration with the AfD. Approximately 49% of respondents found the acceptance of AfD votes for legislative purposes to be "not acceptable," whereas 44% deemed the strategy acceptable. These stark divisions highlight the challenges Merz faces moving forward.
Interestingly, 69% of Germans expressed significant concerns over potential political instability post-election, reflecting apprehension about finding viable government coalitions. Voter concerns may be undermining the SPD's attempts to reclaim its base, seemingly unsuccessful as they find themselves unable to connect with voters effectively compared to the CDU.
With only weeks to go until the election, the dynamics are continuously shifting, making it imperative for parties to adjust their strategies. The forthcoming election not only hinges on party loyalty but also on the candidates’ capacity to resonate with the electorate's pressing concerns, predominantly around migration and governance. The CDU's rising numbers, coupled with growing frustrations from voters toward the SPD and Greens, suggest we might witness significant changes post-voting.
Observations from previous elections indicate the reliability of such polling data, which is often reflective but not predictive. The methodology behind this survey guarantees to keep highlighting potential voter trends leading up to one of Germany's most consequential elections.