In a surprising twist ahead of the 2027 presidential election, a recent poll has shown promising results for the Rassemblement National (RN), yet it has sparked controversy due to the absence of Marine Le Pen's name as a candidate. Instead, the poll tested the potential candidacy of Jordan Bardella, Le Pen's designated successor, who would only run if Le Pen's current five-year ineligibility is upheld.
Marine Le Pen, the prominent leader of the RN, expressed her discontent with the poll's focus on Bardella during a public appearance in Hénin-Beaumont on May 8, 2025. "I am not offended by this; I find it just ridiculous," she stated, asserting her continued presence and fight within the party. "Believe me, I am here, very much here, and more combative than ever," she added, emphasizing her resilience despite the legal challenges she faces.
The poll, conducted by Ifop for Hexagone—a think tank associated with conservative billionaire Pierre-Edouard Stérin—initially tested only Bardella due to Le Pen's legal troubles stemming from a case involving European parliamentary assistants. Following complaints from RN members, Hexagone requested that Ifop also assess Le Pen's candidacy, which they did at the end of April 2025.
Results from the poll, published earlier this week, indicated that both Le Pen and Bardella would garner similar support in the first round of voting, with estimates ranging between 32% and 35%, depending on the scenario. The poll also suggested a highly competitive second round against Édouard Philippe of the Horizons party, showing a slight edge for Bardella, with a 50/50 split compared to a 48/52 split for Le Pen.
This situation has raised eyebrows within the party, as some RN members are concerned about the implications of Bardella being the sole candidate tested. "If now we have to fight for her to appear in the polls, we are in trouble!" lamented a close associate of Le Pen, reflecting the anxiety surrounding her political future.
In the meantime, Bardella has been making headlines with his initiatives, some of which diverge from Le Pen's established positions. Recently, he published an opinion piece in the Journal du Dimanche opposing a bill on assisted dying, despite the fact that he is not a voting member of the National Assembly and that Le Pen has advocated for allowing her party members to vote freely on such matters.
Adding to the buzz, Bardella is reportedly preparing a second book, set to be released in the fall, which he describes as an "ode to the France of work." This project, according to his inner circle, was planned before Le Pen's conviction and is not intended as a campaign book for the presidency.
Furthermore, Bardella is also planning several trips abroad, with details kept under wraps for now. His recent visit to Israel has been followed by plans for more international engagements, aimed at bolstering his presidential stature, albeit subtly.
As the political landscape evolves, Le Pen remains hopeful about her legal situation. She anticipates that her five-year ineligibility sentence will be overturned on appeal next year, which would allow her to reclaim her position as a leading candidate for the RN in the upcoming election.
Despite the current challenges, both Le Pen and Bardella are seen as capable of drawing significant voter support. Le Pen, in her comments, highlighted the positive aspect of the recent poll: "The Rassemblement National, through the voice of Jordan or mine, is extremely high in voting intentions, and that is the real good news from this poll."
The dynamics between Le Pen and Bardella will be crucial as the RN navigates the political waters leading up to the 2027 election. With both leaders poised to compete for the party's future, their relationship and strategies will undoubtedly shape the RN's approach to the electorate.
As the election season approaches, the RN's internal dynamics, combined with Le Pen's legal battles and Bardella's rising profile, will be under close scrutiny. The party's ability to maintain unity and present a cohesive front will be essential in securing voter support amid a competitive political landscape.
