Germany has found itself at the center of a political storm in 2025, as a dramatic surge in violence against politicians coincides with a period of intense debate over foreign and domestic policy. According to figures released by the federal government, 2,210 criminal offenses targeting members of Bundestag parties were recorded in just the first half of the year—a staggering 165% increase compared to the previous six months. This spike, reported by Junge Freiheit and confirmed by official responses to a parliamentary inquiry from Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) lawmaker Martin Hess, has already surpassed all previous half-year records. For context, the previous annual record was 2,934 incidents in 2021, a figure now likely to be exceeded by the end of 2025.
The brunt of these attacks has fallen on the AfD, which, according to the latest polls, is now neck and neck with Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU bloc, each commanding 25% of voter support. By mid-2025, 808 incidents had targeted AfD representatives, up from 730 in the previous half-year. The center-right CDU/CSU bloc has also seen a sharp rise in attacks, with 545 cases reported—a nearly fivefold jump from the 110 incidents in the latter half of 2024. Other parties have not been spared: the Greens reported 477 cases, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) 362, Die Linke 114, and even the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which has largely faded from the political spotlight, recorded 103 cases.
Most suspects in these cases are believed to come from the left-wing spectrum, according to the government’s report. Yet, the federal government has denied that there is any systematic campaign of intimidation against the AfD. In its official statement, officials said there is no indication of “planned, targeted threats or intimidation” against the party. This stance has been met with skepticism from within the AfD. Martin Hess, the lawmaker who initiated the inquiry, pointed to what he described as inflammatory rhetoric from left-wing politicians as a catalyst for violence. He cited an especially controversial example: “When, for example, the chairwoman of the Green Youth, Jette Nietzard, publicly suggests using armed force against the AfD, this contributes to legitimizing such acts in the eyes of violent extremists.”
The political climate is further complicated by calls from government officials, including Minister of Justice Stefanie Hubig of the SPD, to consider banning the AfD. However, these officials have not specified in what ways the party “threatens the democratic order,” leaving room for heated debate and speculation across the political spectrum. The issue of political violence has thus become deeply entangled with broader questions about the limits of free speech, the legitimacy of opposition parties, and the health of German democracy itself.
All of this comes as Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has now been in office for almost 100 days, faces mounting challenges both at home and abroad. Merz’s government, formed from the center-right CDU/CSU, took power promising stability and reform. Yet, the first months have been anything but smooth sailing. On the foreign policy front, Merz has focused considerable attention on the Middle East, particularly the conflict in Gaza. Back in May, he admitted in an interview that he could “no longer understand what goals Israel was pursuing in the Gaza Strip.” More recently, Merz called on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to alleviate the suffering of the roughly 2 million people living in the territory, a stance that marks a subtle but significant shift in Germany’s traditionally unwavering support for Israel.
That shift became even more pronounced on August 8, when the German government imposed a partial export ban on military equipment to Israel. “Germany will not approve any exports of military equipment that could be used in the Gaza Strip until further notice,” Merz announced, signaling a new willingness to pressure Israel over its actions in the region. According to a poll conducted between August 4 and 6 by infratest-dimap for ARD’s Deutschlandtrend, a clear majority of Germans believe the chancellor should increase pressure on Israel. Still, the fate of hostages held by Hamas remains the public’s main concern.
Germany’s historical relationship with Israel has long been shaped by the country’s sense of responsibility stemming from the Holocaust. Both Merz and his predecessor, Olaf Scholz of the SPD—now Merz’s junior coalition partner—have repeatedly emphasized this special responsibility. Yet, the latest poll reveals a shift in public sentiment: only 31% of respondents now believe Germany still has a special responsibility for Israel’s existence, a marked decline from previous years.
Meanwhile, domestic politics remain fraught. The general election on February 23, 2025, saw a rise in support for the far-right AfD. More than five months later, that trend has only strengthened: 24% of respondents in the recent poll say they would vote for the AfD, while the CDU/CSU bloc leads with 27%. Support for the other major parties—the SPD, the Greens, and Die Linke—has remained stable, but the far right’s momentum has rattled the political establishment.
Chancellor Merz’s own popularity has taken a hit. Before the election, voters were optimistic that he would effectively address irregular immigration, one of the country’s most pressing issues. Now, only four out of ten respondents believe he’s up to the task, and satisfaction is largely confined to his own party’s base. When it comes to trust, the numbers are even more sobering: only 26% of those surveyed consider Merz trustworthy, down three percentage points since February.
Despite these challenges, the government is pressing ahead with ambitious plans for the country’s future. Over the next several years, €500 billion (about $581 billion) has been earmarked to renovate Germany’s railways, roads, and schools, with at least the same amount again dedicated to upgrading the German army—a clear departure from the conservatives’ campaign promise not to take out any new loans. Whether these investments will be enough to restore public confidence remains to be seen.
Adding to the uncertainty, Germany’s export-driven economy faces headwinds from abroad. US President Donald Trump has imposed a 15% tariff on most goods from the European Union and a hefty 50% on steel and aluminum. In a controversial agreement with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the US has exempted its own exports from tariffs to the EU. According to the latest poll, a clear majority of Germans remain concerned—or even very concerned—that these tariffs will further hurt the German economy, though the number expressing concern has dipped slightly, perhaps reflecting the unpredictable nature of Trump’s trade policies.
As Germany navigates this turbulent landscape, the stakes could hardly be higher—for the country’s political stability, its place in Europe, and its role on the world stage. With violence against politicians on the rise, support for the far right growing, and public confidence in the government wavering, the coming months are likely to test the resilience of German democracy like never before.