The political climate in Germany is shifting rapidly as the country gears up for its next federal election, now anticipated earlier than expected due to the recent developments surrounding the Ampelkoalition government. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, leading the Social Democratic Party (SPD), faced heavy criticism from within and posed the confidence question within the Bundestag, resulting in its rejection. This marked the end of the current coalition government, propelling citizens toward the prospect of new elections sooner than many had anticipated.
Polling organizations such as Forsa and infratest dimap conduct regular surveys, asking voters about their party preferences as if the election were to occur the upcoming Sunday. According to the RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND), daily averages are calculated from the latest ten polls to provide insights on shifting voter sentiments.
Historically, following the last Bundestag election in 2021, the SPD initially thrived, ranking as the dominant party for some time. But soon enough, the conservative Union overtook them, and the Greens, who had initially seen sustained support, began to lose votes. Similarly, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) has been struggling, their parliamentary survival now put at risk due to dwindling public support.
The voting trends demonstrate the AfD as the major beneficiary of the Ampelkoalition's voter losses, as they surged to become the second-strongest party by mid-2023. Nonetheless, early 2024 saw the AfD losing some of its newly won support. Meanwhile, the emergence of the newly formed BSW party, spearheaded by Sahra Wagenknecht, has gained traction, achieving more than 5% of the voting share almost immediately.
The presidency of Chancellor Olaf Scholz has reached its historical low point, as he deliberately lost the confidence question to pave the way for elections. The current political dynamics reflect the shifting perspectives among voters, and the following graphs reveal how these power balances have evolved since this pivotal moment.
Various polling institutes utilize distinct methodologies to gauge political sentiment. For example, Allensbach employs personal interviews under specific quotas, whereas Verian (Kantar Public, Emnid) and Forsa opt for telephone interviews with randomly selected individuals. INSA and YouGov use Internet-based surveys targeting specially selected demographics. Most panels comprise between 1,000 and 2,000 participants, typically adjusted through various criteria aimed to produce results reflective of the eligible voting population. For example, the Research Group Elections modifies data according to age, gender, and educational background.
Considering coalition possibilities, the Union is optimistic about forming majorities either with the SPD or the Greens, providing them with leverage during coalition negotiations. Importantly, the Union has dismissed any potential alliance with the AfD. Meanwhile, the likelihood of coalitions opposing the Union appears slim, especially since the other parties have excluded any cooperation with the AfD from the outset.
Recent polling data reveals significant changes leading to the 2025 election, as outlined in the accompanying graphs comparing current figures with past election results across Europe and the eastern federal states of Germany, such as Thüringen, Sachsen, and Brandenburg.
Analyzing candidate popularity, the Union’s Friedrich Merz is considered to have the best shot at winning the chancellorship. His party holds the lead in polls, and collaboration with the SPD is perceived as feasible. Conversely, Olaf Scholz from the SPD and Robert Habeck from the Greens have fewer chances for success. Other parties have explicitly ruled out any coalition with the AfD, led by Alice Weidel, though shifting circumstances may arise post-election, similar to the situation observed recently in Austria.
Forecasts by election.de suggest which parties are projected to prevail based on first votes in the upcoming elections. The predictions indicate predominantly favorable outcomes for the Union within western regions of Germany, whereas the AfD appears poised for substantial support across eastern territories. These forecasts are based on polling data and historical results, incorporating candidate selections and their previous performances for accuracy. This prediction methodology has proven reliable during prior elections.
All eyes are now on the upcoming election as political alliances form and dissolve, voter sentiments shift, and the electorate weighs its options amid changing leaders and party dynamics. The outcome of these elections could significantly reshape Germany's political future and its position within the broader European framework.