As Italy approaches the mid-term of its current legislative session, the political landscape appears increasingly complex, with the latest polling data revealing significant shifts among the country’s main parties. According to a recent analysis published on March 28, 2025, the ruling party, Fratelli d’Italia (FdI), has seen a slight decline in support, while the opposition parties are vying for attention, presenting a potentially volatile environment for the government.
Fratelli d’Italia, led by Giorgia Meloni, remains the dominant force in Italian politics, though its support has dipped to 28.3%, marking a 0.6% decrease from the previous month. This decline represents the most significant drop among all political parties, causing some observers to question the party's continued dominance. Despite this setback, FdI retains a comfortable lead over the second-place Democratic Party (PD), which has also experienced a decrease, falling to 23.5%—a drop of 0.3%.
The latest Supermedia poll, a weighted average of national polls conducted by various agencies including Demopolis and Eumetra, indicates that the governing coalition, which includes FdI, Lega, and Forza Italia, is nearing a combined support of 49%. This threshold has only been surpassed twice since the beginning of the current legislature, both occurrences happening in early 2025. However, the coalition's stability is being challenged by the rising support for opposition parties.
Among the opposition, the Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S) has shown notable growth, increasing its support to 11.6%, a rise of 0.5%. This uptick suggests that the party, once in decline, may be regaining traction among voters. Meanwhile, the Lega, led by Matteo Salvini, has also seen an increase in support, now at 8.7%, surpassing Forza Italia, which has dropped to 8.5%. This marks the first time in recent months that Lega has outperformed its coalition partner, a shift that may signal changing dynamics within the center-right alliance.
Interestingly, the Alleanza Verdi-Sinistra has maintained a stable position at 6.5%, indicating a consistent base, while the centrist party Azione, led by Carlo Calenda, has gained ground, reaching 3%—the highest among minority parties. Italia Viva, on the other hand, has seen a slight decrease to 2.1%, while +Europa has dropped to 1.5%. Notably, the group Noi Moderati has seen a modest increase, now at 1.2%.
The overall support for the center-right coalition stands at 46.7%. In contrast, if all opposition parties were to unite, they could potentially command 48.2% of the vote. However, the feasibility of such a coalition remains uncertain, as historical precedents suggest that uniting diverse political factions can be challenging.
Political analysts have noted that the current situation is markedly different from previous legislative sessions. During earlier terms, significant shifts in party support often occurred within the first two and a half years, typically driven by crises or major political events. In this instance, however, the political landscape has remained relatively stable, with only nine parliamentarians switching allegiances—exclusively from opposition to the center-right coalition.
As the political climate evolves, the recent polling data serves as a crucial indicator of voter sentiment and party dynamics. The decline of Fratelli d’Italia, coupled with the growth of the Movimento 5 Stelle and Lega, suggests that the opposition is beginning to consolidate its strength. This could lead to a more competitive political environment as the nation heads toward future elections.
In summary, the latest political polls underscore a shifting landscape in Italy’s political scene, with Fratelli d’Italia facing challenges from both the Democratic Party and the rising opposition. As the government navigates these changes, the coming months will be critical in determining the future direction of Italian politics.
