An alarming trend has been identified among Polish workers, indicating a notable decline in the expectations for salary increases as 2025 approaches. A recent survey conducted by the Randstad Research Institute reveals only 53% of employees anticipate receiving pay raises this year, down from 59% the previous year. Among them, only 15% firmly expect significant jumps, showing a decrease from 19% reported last year.
Gender dynamics also play a significant role, with 56% of men hopeful for salary increments compared to just 49% of women. Interestingly, those most optimistic about salary increases tend to be individuals occupying management roles. Approximately 78% of foremen and brigadiers expect raises along with 64% of senior management and 61% of mid-level managers.
The survey also highlights where the greatest expectations for pay rises lie: 63% of respondents from the hospitality and gastronomy sectors anticipate raises, followed closely by 61% from public administration and logistics. On the flip side, the least optimistic groups include truck drivers and specialists, each with only 43% holding expectations for higher wages, alongside 45% of those employed in education and 44% of healthcare workers.
Monika Hryniszyn, the Regional HR Leader Northern Europe at Randstad, comments on the broader economic conditions contributing to this trend. She observes, “Recently, we have also noted slightly less dynamism in salaries within Poland, and our study suggests this trend could persist. Some employees have recently received raises and bonuses, and there has also been increased availability of benefits important to them. Changes in salaries have at least matched expectations.”
Hryniszyn elaborates on external factors which are shaping employee expectations. “The pace of price increases has not been as high as it was in previous years, allowing for pay raises to be more meaningfully felt within household budgets. Also important is the rise of workplace satisfaction factors, such as positive atmospheres, flexible working hours, and skill advancement opportunities. This may lessen the wage pressure, which, though still present, could be easing somewhat.”
Further complicates the salary outlook is the reported 10% increase to the minimum wage this year compared to the approximately 21.5% increase from the previous year. This change is indicative of the broader labor market conditions impacting expectations. Robert Lisicki, Director of the Labor Department at the Lewiatan Confederation, stresses, “The influence of lower growth on minimum wages this year—compared to last year—along with the overall labor market situation also contributes to diminished wage pressures. Due to the rapid rise of the minimum wage over recent years, it now covers an increasingly large group of workers, and its rise is significant for the entire market.”
Last year, 57% of respondents stated they received salary increases, with the most common range being between 5% to 10%. A significant minority of 21% received raises of between 10% and 20%, with only 4% experiencing increases exceeding 20%. Conversely, 23% were granted raises below 5%, contrary to the 46% who expected such modest increments, whereas 26% aspired for more than 5%.
The general sentiment around salary satisfaction also appears muted. A third of the respondents neither agree nor disagree with their current salary levels, 37% express satisfaction, and 21% are dissatisfied. Notably, the number of individuals highly satisfied (5%) marginally exceeds those who are very dissatisfied (4%).
This examination of wage expectations showcases the caution both employees and employers are exercising amid stable yet cautious economic conditions. The Randstad Market Monitor has continuously surveyed these trends since 2010, with the latest, 58th edition being completed between November 12 and 25, 2024. A total of 1,000 randomly selected respondents, aged 18 to 64 and working minimum 24 hours per week, participated through computer-aided web interviews.
Overall, the analysis points to the need for continued attention to the labor market's evolution and the factors influencing salary expectations, from economic shifts to workplace conditions. The road to 2025 holds uncertainty, but clear patterns are already surfacing, reflecting broader economic sentiments and worker priorities.