A polar vortex collapse is expected to hit mid-March 2025, unleashing severe winter weather and major travel disruptions across the United States and Canada. This event could also extend its impact to the UK and Europe, raising weather concerns across these regions.
This will mark the second polar vortex collapse of 2025, following one earlier this year which brought freezing conditions and transport difficulties across North America.
What exactly is a polar vortex collapse? A polar vortex is basically a vast zone encompassing low pressure and frigid air circling around the Earth's poles, serving as a main driver of winter weather patterns. Its system links closely with the jet stream—an intense ribbon of winds flowing between eight to eleven kilometers above the Earth.
When the polar vortex weakens, it disrupts the stability of the jet stream, enabling icy Arctic air to surge southward. This intrusion can lead to unpredictable and severe weather, resulting in extreme cold snaps, heavy snowfall, and significant societal disruptions.
But how does such a polar vortex collapse occur? It happens when temperatures in the stratosphere, positioned between ten and fifty kilometers above the Earth's surface, spike sharply—up to fifty degrees Celsius—within forty-eight hours, which scientists call sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). This rapid increase disrupts the polar vortex's stability and lays the groundwork for frigid Arctic air to pour south.
The upcoming event follows February's wintery weather, which already saw widespread snow and plummeting temperatures affecting much of the nation. According to AccuWeather's lead meteorologist, Paul Pastelok, We are predicting a displacement of the polar vortex on the Europe and eastern Canada side of the polar. He continues, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding the timing for North America but predicting potential shifts late March to early April.
Experts warn this latest stratospheric event appears even more intense than its early February predecessor. If the polar vortex disruption drives down jet stream intensity, polar air masses could shift toward southern regions of North America or Eurasia. Pastelok noted, When the polar vortex is disrupted - whether stretched, displaced, or split - it can, but does not always, impact this polar jet stream.
Adding to the difficulties, on February 19, temperatures sank dangerously low across multiple states, hitting -45°F, particularly threatening areas like Montana and the Dakotas. Forecasts indicated extremes—such as wind chills reaching -60°F—across sections of the Midwest.
Such severe conditions led to significant travel disturbances, with over 4,400 flights disrupted nationwide due to inclement weather on February 12 alone. With yet another polar vortex collapse on the horizon, it may serve as yet another reminder for travelers to prepare for unpredictable weather shifts.
With the imminent collapse, meteorologists warn traveling patterns could be severely disturbed, especially as the winter season draws toward spring. Experts recommend travelers remain aware of the weather, keeping abreast of any changes particularly if plans involve flying or driving to affected regions.
For those planning to visit or traverse North America and Europe, forecasting agencies recommend monitoring updates closely. The likelihood of weather-related disruptions increases substantially as the vortex collapse approaches.
Already, spring break is on the radar for many, and continued polar conditions might necessitate travelers look for flexibility within travel plans. Since the impacts of polar vortex collapses can ripple over several weeks, the cautious traveler will take heed.
Forecasters from the UK Met Office have also noted these disruptions could potentially affect surface weather, leading to block weather patterns, increased cold temperatures, and slow-moving storm systems over Europe. Whether viewers are aiming for sunny springscapes or winter wonderlands, staying adaptive will be key during these climatic shifts.
Lastly, as experts reiterate the increasing frequency of polar vortex-related phenomena reflects on broader climate patterns. Whether risking stormy weather or embracing seasonal changes, engagement with local forecasts and weather updates will remain integral as March and early April approach.