Polar vortex collapses can wreak havoc across multiple regions, and it appears one is looming. A significant polar vortex collapse is expected to occur within the next two weeks, around March 18, 2025, triggering extreme winter weather and travel disruptions all over North America.
This weather phenomenon is anticipated to develop around mid-March and is expected to bring severe cold temperatures, particularly affecting parts of Canada and the United States. The impending polar vortex event may also extend its icy fingers across the UK and Europe as it develops.
So, what exactly is this polar vortex collapse? It occurs when the stratospheric layer—located between 10 and 50 kilometers above Earth's surface—experiences drastic warming, often as much as 50 degrees Fahrenheit within just two days. This sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) can weaken the polar vortex, allowing cold Arctic air to spill southward, leading to severe and unusual weather conditions.
The looming collapse will mark the second polar vortex event of 2025; the first occurred last month, resulting in record-setting cold temperatures and severe travel disruptions impacting millions of Americans throughout February. Heavy snow, storms, and relentless sub-zero temperatures disrupted daily life across much of the country.
AccuWeather’s Lead Meteorologist Paul Pastelok relayed his predictions concerning this polar vortex situation, stating, “We are predicting a displacement of the polar vortex on the Europe and eastern Canada side of the polar.” He explained, “When the Polar Vortex is disrupted - whether stretched, displaced, or split - it can, but does not always, impact this polar jet stream.” This displacement can lead to dramatic changes, with potential impacts extending from North America to Eurasia.
Pastelok highlighted the timing ambiguity for North America, admitting, “The timing is uncertain for North America but could see a change in the pattern for late March to early April.” This uncertainty leaves residents on edge as they await what may be brewing on the horizon.
The polar vortex—the large area of low pressure and cold air rotating around the North and South poles—corresponds with narrow bands of wind significantly higher up, about 8 to 11 kilometers above the earth's surface, known as the jet stream. When the polar vortex weakens, the jet stream may become less stable. This destabilization could allow cold polar air to surge southward, giving rise to unpredictable and extreme weather conditions.
Notably, Pastelok pointed out, there exists “a small chance of a complete split” of this jet stream pattern, which could last between four to seven weeks. He clarified, though, “But a displacement or change is more likely.” This displacement of the polar vortex patterns tends to be shorter-lived but still carries significant consequences, affecting Europe and central and eastern North America.
The developing weather event raises alarms for the UK, particularly as forecasters caution citizens to prepare for another drop in temperatures after what appears to be only a temporary reprieve from the cold this week. The UK Met Office added, “SSWs don’t always impact our weather but if they do, it can take weeks before impacts might be felt on the earth's surface.” The Met Office explained, “If this happens, this would act as a factor favoring blocked or slowly-evolving patterns for the remainder of March and could bring colder weather to the UK.”
The potential emergency heading toward millions of people across the Atlantic ought to be taken seriously. Communities are being reminded to prepare for what is sure to be another round of winter weather, likely reminiscent of the chaos experienced last month.
Snowstorms and serious temperature declines are anticipated, leaving many to reminisce about the harsh conditions faced earlier this year. Residents would do well to stay informed as developments continue to materialize and the influence of this polar vortex becomes more evident.
Warmer air being buoyed above the polar vortex is happening far from the average person's daily experience, but meteorologists continue to warn citizens of the potential outcomes. Monitoring these changes and preparing accordingly can prove to be invaluable. With the history of intense cold and winter storms already prevalent this year, it’s prudent to stay alert as conditions evolve rapidly.
Severe weather, travel disruptions, and unpredictability are all roadblocks potentially lurking just around the bend as this polar vortex collapse approaches. March is set to be anything but ordinary as dramatic shifts and impacts ripple through both North America and possibly our neighboring continent of Europe. Residents must brace themselves for the winter weather, readying themselves once more as winter returns with full force.