Poland's imports of rolled steel products have surged dramatically, reflecting broader patterns within international trade. According to recent data compiled by the GMK Center, Poland's overall steel imports from third countries increased by an impressive 26.3% during the first ten months of 2024, totaling 1.869 million tons.
This uptick is primarily driven by flat rolled products, which now dominate the market, making up more than 75% of total steel imports. Specifically, the import of flat products rose by 33.5% year-over-year, amounting to 1.42 million tons, with notable increases also seen for long products which rose by 8.6% to 472.39 thousand tons. The largest segment of flat products includes hot-rolled varieties, accounting for 786.53 thousand tons, indicating strong demand for these materials within Poland's industrial sectors.
October 2024 marked another high point, as the country imported 232.89 thousand tons of rolled steel – up 35.2% compared to the same month last year. The breakdown reveals imports of long products surged by 25% to 50.1 thousand tons, whereas flat product imports jumped by 38.3% to reach 182.79 thousand tons. Despite this remarkable growth, Poland's steel exports experienced a downturn, decreasing by 6.8% from October 2023 to 22.99 thousand tons.
Further analysis shows the export of flat products diminished by 4.3%, contrasting heavily with the earlier import gains. Over the first ten months of the year, Poland exported 246.07 thousand tons of rolled steel—a decline of 5.6% year-over-year, primarily driven by reduced shipments of both long and flat products. This regression can be linked to the country's overall decrease of 13.1% in steel production throughout 2023, totaling 6.44 million tons compared to the previous year, amplifying concerns over domestic capabilities to satisfy growing import demands.
Poland’s steel production challenges are compounded by developments occurring elsewhere, such as Russia's recent policy shifts impacting the exportation of agricultural commodities—particularly pulses. On January 1st, 2024, Russia will impose a fixed 5% duty on exports of peas, chickpeas, and lentils, effectively reducing the earlier variable rates which could climb as high as 7%, contingent upon fluctuations of the rouble against the dollar. This strategy aims to stabilize the balance between internal consumption and export capabilities.
With the reduction of the export duty by 30%, as explained by Sergei Pluzhnikov, head of Russian Pulses Analytics, it is expected to ease the market’s uncertainties. The previous tariff model provoked hesitancy among traders, complicity caused by shifting duty rates based on currency valuations.
Russia has emerged as the top global exporter of peas, dominating the market largely due to its expanded agricultural footprint and record growth of pulse cultivation over the past two years. The country's export volume peaked at 2.9 million tons, surpassing traditional leader Canada. Notably, Kazakhstan and India are now tapping Russia's abundance of pulses, with exports slated for increased activity as farmers focus more on these profitable crops instead of wheat, which has historically been Russia's staple agricultural export.
While Russia's production capacity soared, recent weather challenges have led to smaller yields; the 2023 crop produced 4 million tons of pulses, down from last year's peak of 4.7 million tons. Sluggish exports to China have been observed, with shipments plummeting from 1.7 million tons to only 0.7 million tons during the first half of the 2024/2025 export season. Consumers, especially those from major markets like China, India, and Turkey, are behaving cautiously, with substantial stockpiles built from previous years contributing to their market inactivity.
The overall dynamics of international agricultural trade continue to evolve, with Poland's increasing reliance on steel imports and Russia's recalibration of its export duties reflecting broader market responses to global agricultural trends. Steelmakers and agricultural producers alike will need to navigate these shifts carefully to remain competitive within their industries.