Poland is gearing up for its presidential election on May 18, 2025, with the political atmosphere heating up as candidates vie for the support of Polish citizens. Recent polling data reveals significant shifts among the leading candidates, particularly as they position themselves on key national and international issues.
According to SW Research, published by Wprost on February 28, 2025, the frontrunner is Rafal Trzaskowski, the candidate from the Civic Coalition and the current mayor of Warsaw, who has seen his support increase to 33.6%. This figure reflects a 0.7% rise from January, solidifying his status as the leader of the pack.
Close on Trzaskowski's heels is Slawomir Mentzen, the presidential candidate from the Confederation party, whose popularity has surged significantly. Over the last month, he has gained nearly 6 percentage points, pushing his support to nearly 19%. His rise has been notable, marking the first time he has attained the second spot among Polish presidential hopefuls, overtaking Karol Nawrocki of the Law and Justice party (PiS), who now stands at 16.5% after losing 0.5 percentage points since January.
Mentzen, known for his provocative stance, recently made headlines following his visit to Lviv, Ukraine, where he generated controversy by labeling Stepana Bandera, a divisive figure among Ukrainians and Poles, as "a terrorist who was sentenced to death by Polish courts for murdering Poles". His comments have drawn sharp rebukes, particularly from Lviv's mayor, Andriy Sadovyi, who described Mentzen as "a pro-Russian politician with a Polish passport". Sadovyi challenged Mentzen to show courage by recording videos near the Donetsk stele instead, highlighting the intense national and regional sentiments surrounding their interactions.
The growing polarization of sentiments concerning Ukraine and Poland is becoming increasingly clear as the election approaches. Mentzen's remarks have been characterized by some as part of his strategy to galvanize domestic support amid rising anti-Ukrainian sentiment within Poland. There are concerns about the potential ramifications of such rhetoric as it could exacerbate tensions between the two nations, especially amid the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Karol Nawrocki, who is backed by the ruling Law and Justice party, is facing challenges as his support dwindles. The socio-political climate appears to be shifting, and some analysts suggest Nawrocki's traditional approach may be losing its appeal, especially as Mentzen increasingly captures the attention of voters seeking more radical perspectives.
Polls indicate not only voter sentiment but also reflect shifting allegiances influenced by broader political dynamics, including the impact of international figures like former U.S. President Donald Trump. Reports from Politico highlight how Trump's appeal within Poland could benefit PiS, potentially adjusting their campaign strategy accordingly.
The Polish political scene is being closely watched, as the upcoming election will not only determine the presidency but could also reshape domestic policy and international relations moving forward. With elections retaining the potential to radically alter the political discourse, the stakes are undeniably high.
Following the tumultuous periods of both the pandemic and the crisis stemming from the war in Ukraine, Polish voters are now facing their own dilemma: which candidate will best address their needs and the country's challenges on the international stage? The growing distrust of Ukraine, paired with tough stances on immigration and foreign policy, particularly concerning Russia and the U.S., are expected to play significant roles as the campaigns intensify.
Overall, the final outcome remains uncertain, yet candidates' strategies and public sentiment are progressively taking shape, setting the stage for what promises to be one of Poland's most contentious elections to date. The public will be heavily informed by how candidates respond to current events and international pressures leading up to the first round of voting.
With just months until the election, the political climate is rife with opportunity and tension, making it clear each candidate will need to not only articulate their vision for Poland but also navigate the complicated waters of domestic and foreign relations. How voters respond to these challenges may very well define the future direction of Poland, especially as it stands at the crossroads of national interests and regional stability.
Only time will tell how the dynamics will play out and which candidate will resonate most with the electorate, especially as the first round draws closer. All eyes are now on Poland as it prepares for one of its most impactful electoral decisions of recent memory.