Poland's Presidential Election Approaches With Key Polling Insights

As the final days of the presidential campaign approach in Poland, recent polling data indicates that a significant majority of voters have already made their choice. According to a recent SW Research poll conducted for Onet, 59.1% of Poles are confident in their candidate selection, while 23.5% are still open to changing their minds. Meanwhile, 14.5% remain undecided, and 2.9% have stated they will not participate in the election.

The upcoming presidential election, scheduled for May 18, 2025, will be pivotal for the candidates vying for the presidency. A final debate on May 12, organized by three major television stations, may sway some undecided voters and potentially influence those who have already chosen their favorites.

Breaking down the demographics, men show a higher level of certainty in their choices, with 63.6% stating they will stick to their candidate. In contrast, only 55.2% of women express the same level of confidence. Among those aged 50 and over, a remarkable 72.1% do not foresee changing their vote, while only 15.8% are considering a switch. On the other hand, younger voters, particularly those aged 24 and under, exhibit more flexibility, with 40.5% admitting they might change their preferred candidate.

The State Electoral Commission has registered a diverse slate of candidates, including Grzegorz Braun, Szymon Hołownia, Sławomir Mentzen, Karol Nawrocki, and the current mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, among others. The complete and updated list of registered candidates can be found on the State Electoral Commission’s website.

As the election date draws near, important deadlines are looming for voters. By May 5, individuals with disabilities and those aged 60 and over must register for postal voting and request free transportation to polling places. Additionally, information regarding free passenger transport on election day must be made public by May 8.

For those wishing to vote abroad, applications must be submitted by May 13. The election campaign officially ends at midnight on May 16, ushering in a period of silence before the voting begins on May 18 at 7:00 AM, concluding at 9:00 PM.

In another recent poll conducted by SW Research for "Wprost," Rafał Trzaskowski is leading with 24.6% of the vote, followed by Karol Nawrocki at 14.5% and Sławomir Mentzen at 10.5%. This polling indicates a significant lead for Trzaskowski, who has outperformed his rivals during the campaign. Other candidates received lower percentages, with Szymon Hołownia at 6%, Krzysztof Stanowski at 5.1%, and Magdalena Biejat at 5%.

Interestingly, the preferences among younger voters differ notably. In the 18-24 age group, Sławomir Mentzen leads with 17.7%, followed closely by Adrian Zandberg at 14.5% and Trzaskowski at 13.8%. Mentzen also maintains his lead among voters aged 25-34, garnering 21.3% of the vote, while Trzaskowski ranks lower with 11%.

Among the 35-49 age demographic, Trzaskowski regains the lead with 20.2%, followed by Nawrocki at 17.3% and Mentzen at 11.6%. For voters over 50, Trzaskowski’s dominance is even clearer, as he captures 35.9% of their support, with Nawrocki at 16.5% and Biejat at 6.1%.

As the campaign progresses, the dynamics among the candidates and their respective voter bases continue to shift. The final debate on May 12 is anticipated to be a crucial moment, potentially impacting the undecided voters and those considering changing their minds.

With the election fast approaching, candidates and their teams are ramping up efforts to secure votes, while voters are weighing their options in a landscape that remains fluid and unpredictable. The outcome of this election could have lasting implications for Poland’s political landscape, making every vote count.

As the nation prepares for this significant electoral event, the engagement of voters, especially those who are still undecided, will be vital. The next few days will be critical as candidates make their final appeals and voters finalize their choices ahead of the polls.