The Polish manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, as evidenced by the latest S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report, which recorded 50.6 points for February 2025. This figure marks the first time the index has surpassed the neutral 50-point threshold since April 2022, indicating a turnaround after nearly three years of stagnation.
According to the data, released on March 3, 2025, the PMI rebounded from January’s reading of 48.8 points, building on the previous month's moderate gain. The rise appears to signal renewed confidence among local manufacturers, with hope bolstered by increased new orders, production, and employment, driven primarily by improved market conditions.
Andrzej Domański, Poland's Minister of Finance, expressed relief and optimism, saying, "Mamy to! Polski PMI wrócił z bardzo dalekiej podróży," which translates to "We did it! The Polish PMI has come back from a long way down!" His reaction reflects the heightened demand for positive news from the manufacturing sector, which has been hit hard by various economic challenges, including declining orders from Western markets and the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The increase to 50.6 points was notable as it not only surpassed the median forecast of analysts, who expected the PMI to rise only to around 49 points, but also ended the longest period of consecutive sub-50 PMI readings since S&P Global began tracking this data back in 1998.
Trevor Balchin, director of economic research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented on the data, explaining, "W lutym, dzięki nasileniu popytu oraz poprawie prognoz producenci ośmielili się podnieść ceny swoich wyrobów," meaning "in February, due to increased demand and improved forecasts, producers were encouraged to raise the prices of their products." This pricing dynamic is seen as indicative of growing confidence among manufacturers, yet the pace of expansion remains marginal.
The report also noted, "Liczba nowych zamówień płynących do polskich producentów zwiększyła się w lutym, kończąc rekordowy okres spadku trwający od marca 2022." This statement highlights the end of a prolonged decline with new orders increasing for only the third time over the past three years. Even so, export orders continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace than previously recorded.
Economic analysts, including Monika Kurtek, Chief Economist at Bank Pocztowy, conveyed renewed optimism among producers, attributing positive forecasts to new products being introduced, rising demand, and improvements noted particularly within Germany, which serves as the largest market for Polish goods. The insights suggest high hopes for increased orders moving forward, provided the external economic climate remains stable.
Following four months of reductions, stock levels saw stabilization, which presents businesses with opportunities to restructure their production and inventory management to align more closely with the new order flow.
Though many manufacturers reported improving conditions, the responses about hiring reflected cautious optimism. Companies increased employment for the fourth time within the last five months, as firms responded to the signs of possible sustained growth as spring approaches.
Yet, there are still noticeable risks. The international economic climate remains uncertain, particularly with respect to conditions within Germany amid potential tariffs proposed by the United States on the European Union, which could disrupt trade relationships and impact the manufacturing dynamics.
Looking forward, economists express hope for continued growth, yet they remain vigilant as they assess whether the Polish PMI can maintain its upward momentum beyond the current reading. Economists highlight the need to remain attentive to external factors affecting the economy, noting recent volatility within international markets and other geopolitical uncertainties.
Overall, February's PMI report for Poland’s manufacturing sector provides both optimism and caution—a balanced view as sectors across the board realign and respond to the changing market demands. Continued monitoring of these indicators, namely production levels, job creation, and the status of new orders, will be imperative for forecasting the sustainability of this positive shift.