Poland is witnessing a significant rise in the number of foreign migrants receiving pensions and other social security benefits from its national social insurance institution, ZUS. Recent statistics indicate over 20,000 foreigners received pensions amounting to 27.6 million złoty (approximately $6.3 million) just within December 2024, marking a notable increase compared to previous years. This change reflects not only Poland's burgeoning migration patterns but also hints at systemic challenges and the need for regulatory adjustments.
According to data compiled for the Dziennik Gazeta Prawna, the number of foreign beneficiaries rose sharply from about 15,300 receiving around 21.5 million złoty in December 2023, and 12,200 beneficiaries with 16.5 million złoty just two years earlier. This continuous annual growth is expected to escalate, with projections estimating ZUS will spend at least 5 million złoty more each subsequent year on these payments.
Dr. Marcin Krajewski from the University of Łódź attributes this increasing trend to the influx of job-seeking migrants, particularly from neighboring countries like Ukraine and Belarus, who have been significant contributors to the Polish labor market since the escalation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Currently, approximately 1.2 million foreigners are insured under Polish pension schemes, with Ukrainians making up the largest share at 787,500, followed by 134,900 Belarusians and 25,700 Georgians.
"The statistics from ZUS show the growing number of insured individuals of Ukrainian and Belarusian origin has been accelerated since 2015 due to geopolitical tensions," Dr. Krajewski explained. By the end of 2023, nearly 7% of insured individuals held non-Polish citizenship, contributing about 5% of revenues to ZUS.
Notably, when these individuals retire, if they’ve only accrued minimal pensions from their home countries, ZUS may be required to supplement their incomes to meet the Polish minimum pension standard. This situation raises concerns about budget impacts as Ukrainian pensions are considerably lower, ranging from 2725 to 3370 hryvnias (approximately $260 to $320), necessitating substantial top-ups from ZUS.
Experts express worry about Poland becoming increasingly welcoming to foreigners seeking refuge not just for employment but also for favorable pension conditions. According to legal expert Andrzej Radzisław of the Goźlińska Petryk and Partners Law Office, Poland's system, which offers benefits even for minimal contributions, is ripe for exploitation. "We operate under the principle of providing pension eligibility as soon as any contribution is made, but there should ideally be minimum working tenure requirements set at ten years," Radzisław said.
Existing bilateral social security agreements with Ukraine and Belarus permit migrants to combine their work periods across these nations, ensuring they can claim pensions based on aggregated contributions. Such regulations are established through EU regulations but have been criticized for being vague and insufficiently detailed. These agreements were reached under conditions aiming to aid migrants, allowing them to receive pensions proportionately to their work period.
Despite such agreements, gaps and ambiguities remain, leading to some issues with eligibility and applying benefits effectively. Kalata, another legal specialist, asserted, “While the agreements look formal on paper, they also create challenges when migrants attempt to establish their rights to combined insurance periods effectively.”
These complications manifest as some foreigners report receiving minimal pension payouts, such as just 97.52 zł monthly, even after decades of labor contributions across Poland and their home countries. This raises serious concerns about fairness and the ability of the system to handle increasing demands as migration numbers continue to grow.
The prospect of Poland transforming itself over the next decade or two as a seniors' paradise for its eastern neighbors certainly enhances the urgency for policymakers to reassess existing pension laws. Experts argue for swift administrative changes and refinements to the relevant legal framework, noting such measures are long overdue. If not addressed, the country's social security infrastructure might face insurmountable strains as dependency on these rising elderly populations increases.
Experts like Dr. Krajewski caution against making definitive predictions about future trends, especially with geopolitics potentially altering migration flows post-conflict. Some Ukrainians may decide to return after hostilities cease, yet as economic conditions remain precarious, it appears many may opt to continue their lives and work within Poland.
Overall, the shift toward more foreign nationals receiving pensions from ZUS seems not merely temporary but part of broader, systemic shifts as Poland integrates itself more deeply within the fabric of European migration patterns. Stakeholders are urged to mark the rising tide of these changes and amend policies to reflect this new reality.