Poland's employment and wage growth data for January 2025 reveals nuanced trends amid the current economic climate. According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), the average gross wage in the enterprise sector rose to PLN 8,482.47, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. This figure, though encouraging, reflects a month-to-month decrease of 3.8% compared to December 2024.
The decline of 3.8% is attributed to the absence of certain bonus payments and incentives typically issued earlier, including holiday bonuses and retirement bonuses, which were prominent features of wage payouts in the previous month.
On the employment front, GUS reported a concerning 0.9% year-on-year decrease, leading to 6,455,000 positions filled. This figure was below market expectations of only a 0.7% drop. Economists from Bank Pekao labeled this development as 'clearly negative'. They asserted, “This annual decline is not indicative of a collapse within the labor market but rather reflects typical seasonal fluctuations. The January data must be regarded as informational noise, lacking substantial insights on the current state of the market.”
Economists have weighed in on these trends, with insights indicating the average wage growth will temporarily stabilize around 9% over the coming months. Despite experiencing slower wage growth compared to the remarkable 22% increase seen the previous year, they forecast pressures on wages will remain resilient, complicative to returning to pre-pandemic growth levels.
Jakub Rybacki, head of the macroeconomics team at the Polish Economic Institute, acknowledged the current stability of the labor market, attributing the recent wage dynamics to the minimal increase of the minimum wage to PLN 4,666, just over PLN 400 higher than the previous year. He points out, “Lower adjustments to the minimum wage result not only in less pronounced increases for those earning the minimum but also diminish heightened wage expectations.”
Despite signs of slowdown, the service sector exhibited strong wage growth, with salaries rising by 13.3% in recreation and culture, and by 10.1% within administrative roles. Rybacki noted, “The weaker results observed within sectors negatively impacted by economic conditions, such as manufacturing and transport, signal underlying difficulties.”
Looking forward, Rybacki stresses the importance of improved economic conditions to facilitate job recovery and engage demand within both domestic and foreign markets. “It will take several months before we see any meaningful change, as the current economic climate remains challenging,” he concluded.
The economists from Bank Pekao stated, “Wage growth is expected to remain below 10% for the next few months but should hover around 9% without the likelihood of significant drops.” They elaborated on the ineffectiveness of past pressures to manage inflation sustainably, with the current wage dynamics posing challenges for the Monetary Policy Council amid efforts to control inflation.
These general sentiments reflect not only on the wage growth but also on the present employment conditions, which are characterized by stagnation within the job market and the potential for sluggish changes moving forward.
Despite the annual wage growth figures appearing optimistic, they indicate underlying constraints imposed by fluctuated and unanticipated employment changes. The economists emphasized, “At this stage, the market is effectively showing signs of weariness, with numerous companies reporting difficulty maintaining hiring expectations amid continued pressure to handle costs.”
Overall, the January 2025 data presents both challenges and opportunities for Poland's labor market. It prompts stakeholders to monitor upcoming data as February's report is anticipated to provide clearer insights for the remaining year.