As Poland gears up for its presidential election on May 18, 2025, forecasts reveal a competitive race among candidates with varying degrees of public support. A recent nationwide projection indicates a voter turnout of 63.5%, slightly higher in the Małopolska region at 65.1%. According to the forecast, Rafał Trzaskowski from the Civic Platform is expected to lead with 33.4% of the votes nationally, followed by Karol Nawrocki, backed by the Law and Justice party, at 27.7%. Sławomir Mentzen of the Confederation Freedom and Independence is predicted to secure 14.3% of the votes.
Other candidates are also in the mix, with Szymon Hołownia from Poland 2050 projected to receive 6.4%, Grzegorz Braun from the Confederation of the Polish Crown at 5%, Adrian Zandberg from the Left at 4%, and Magdalena Biejat with 3.8%. Lesser-known candidates like Krzysztof Stanowski, Joanna Senyszyn, Marek Jakubiak, Artur Bartoszewicz, Marek Woch, and Maciej Maciak are expected to garner minimal support, ranging from 2.3% down to 0.2%.
In Małopolska, the forecast shows Nawrocki ahead with 32.5%, while Trzaskowski is projected to receive 26.4%, and Mentzen 16.3%. The remaining candidates are expected to receive significantly less support, with Hołownia at 7%, Braun at 6.2%, Zandberg at 3.4%, and Biejat at 3.2%. The projections for the region are based on surveys conducted in late April and historical voting patterns from the 2020 and 2023 elections.
Marcin Palade, a political sociologist known for his expertise in electoral geography and preferences, prepared the forecast. He noted that the all-Poland projection is derived from an average of the last ten, five, and three surveys, with adjustments made for anticipated changes in voter mobilization.
Looking at regional dynamics, Nawrocki is also expected to perform well in several other voivodeships. In the Podkarpackie region, he is projected to achieve 40.2%, while Trzaskowski is expected to receive only 18.5%. Similarly, in Podlaskie, Nawrocki is forecasted to win with 33.3% against Trzaskowski's 23.1%. In Lubelskie and Świętokrzyskie, Nawrocki is again anticipated to lead with 37.8% compared to Trzaskowski's 21.7% and 24.4%, respectively.
Conversely, Trzaskowski is expected to dominate in western regions. He is projected to achieve 42.2% in Zachodniopomorskie, 41.6% in Pomorskie, and 40.4% in Lubuskie. His lead in Dolnośląskie and Opolskie is also noteworthy, with expected results of 38.2% and 37.6%, respectively.
As the election date approaches, betting markets are also weighing in on the race. According to STS, a major betting company, Trzaskowski is viewed as the favorite, with 68% of bettors placing their money on him. The odds reflect this sentiment, with Trzaskowski at 1.50, Nawrocki at 2.50, and Mentzen at 12.00. Other candidates have significantly higher odds, indicating lower expectations for their performance.
STS analysts have also projected vote shares for the first round, estimating Trzaskowski at 33.5%, Nawrocki at 29%, and Mentzen at 16%. Meanwhile, the odds for candidates likely to receive the least votes point to Maciej Maciak, followed by Marek Woch and Artur Bartoszewicz.
With the first round of voting set for May 18, the stakes are high. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the votes, a second round will take place on June 1, 2025. This scenario is not uncommon in Polish elections, where a runoff is often necessary to determine the winner.
In the lead-up to the election, a debate featuring ten of the thirteen candidates was held on May 9, 2025, on TV Trwam, co-organized by TV Republika and wPolsce24. The debate included participants such as Nawrocki, Jakubiak, Braun, Stanowski, Zandberg, Hołownia, Bartoszewicz, Senyszyn, Mentzen, and Woch. Notably absent were Trzaskowski and Biejat, who declined to participate, while Maciak was not invited due to his controversial statements regarding Vladimir Putin.
The debate was structured into four segments, starting with questions from experts, followed by inquiries from the audience, mutual questions among candidates, and concluding with free statements. Key topics included the retirement age, healthcare safety, and the state of the rule of law in Poland.
During the debate, Nawrocki emphasized his opposition to raising the retirement age, asserting, "If Rafał Trzaskowski wins, pensions will be at risk. I will never support raising the retirement age." In contrast, Braun called for the liquidation of certain taxes and the phasing out of the social security system, while Bartoszewicz argued for a reevaluation of the retirement age in light of economic conditions.
Health care was another hot topic, with Stanowski declaring the system bankrupt, while Senyszyn insisted that healthcare spending must be nearly doubled as a percentage of GDP to effect meaningful change. Mentzen suggested returning to a healthcare model similar to those in Germany or Switzerland.
As the candidates prepare for the upcoming election, issues such as the demographic crisis and the guarantee of free speech in Poland are also on the minds of voters. With the election fast approaching, it remains to be seen how these debates and forecasts will shape the final outcome.
Voting will take place on May 18 from 7:00 AM to 9:00 PM, with Polish citizens abroad able to participate by registering with their local consulate. Candidates must be at least 35 years old and collect a minimum of 100,000 signatures to qualify for the presidency.