In a rapidly shifting political landscape, the latest polls reveal a dramatic turn of events in Poland's parliamentary race. According to a recent survey by United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska, Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) has overtaken Koalicja Obywatelska (KO) for the first time since January 2025, signaling a significant shift in voter sentiment.
The poll indicates that 29.6 percent of respondents now favor PiS, an increase of 0.8 percentage points since early April 2025. This marks a notable recovery for Jarosław Kaczyński's party, which has struggled in the polls in recent months. In contrast, KO has seen its support plummet to 28.6 percent, a staggering drop of 6.3 percentage points from the previous poll, raising questions about the party's strategy and leadership.
Dr. Krzysztof Piekarski, a political scientist at the University of Gdańsk, noted, "It is evident that as Rafał Trzaskowski begins to lose support and Karol Nawrocki narrows the gap, it also pulls down the ratings of KO. After all, he is the favorite of the Platform, not the entire government coalition." This analysis underscores the interconnectedness of individual candidate popularity and party support.
Trailing behind in third place is Konfederacja, which has garnered 13.9 percent of the vote, although this represents a decrease of 2.5 percentage points. The poll suggests that if elections were held this Sunday, 56.9 percent of respondents would participate, while 41.8 percent said they would not vote, and 1.3 percent remained undecided.
Meanwhile, other parties are also vying for attention. Trzecia Droga, the coalition between Polska 2050 and the Polish People's Party, has seen its support rise to 8.1 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points. Lewica is also in the mix, with a reported 7.9 percent support, up by 2.9 percentage points. However, Partia Razem is still struggling, sitting at 3.5 percent, despite a significant increase of 3 percentage points.
In a separate poll conducted by Opinia24 for Faktów TVN and TVN24, KO was initially reported to have a lead with 30 percent, while PiS had 26 percent and Konfederacja stood at 18 percent. This highlights the volatility of public opinion as different polling organizations report varying results. Notably, the Opinia24 poll indicated that 3 percent of respondents would vote for another party, with an equal percentage remaining undecided.
As the political climate continues to evolve, the upcoming presidential elections, scheduled for May 18 and June 1, 2025, are likely to further influence party dynamics. The pressure is mounting for all parties to solidify their platforms and appeal to a diverse electorate.
This political contest is not just about numbers; it reflects deeper societal sentiments and priorities. Voter engagement remains crucial, as evidenced by the nearly 57 percent who expressed intent to vote. As the election date approaches, parties will need to address key issues that resonate with the electorate, such as economic stability, social justice, and national security.
With the stakes higher than ever, the political arena in Poland is set for a thrilling showdown. The next few weeks will be critical as parties strategize to capture the hearts and minds of voters.
